Bundesliga
Hamburger SV - FC Union Berlin
02/14/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.5
1.1
1:1
14%1:0
10%0:0
10%2:1
9%2:0
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
30%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- HSV's strong home defense (0.79 goals conceded/game) meets Union's weak away defense (2.12 goals conceded/game)
- Current form favors HSV, who celebrated a win recently, while Union is winless in five games
- The mathematical analysis favors a home win with a 43% probability
Risk Factors
- The absence of midfielder Albert Sambi Lokonga (4 season goals) could reduce HSV's goal threat
- The only head-to-head match ended scoreless, which could indicate another tight game
- The model's probability for Over 2.5 goals is estimated to be relatively low at only 45%
Overview
Hamburger SV (11th place, 22 points) hosts FC Union Berlin (9th place, 25 points) at the Volksparkstadion
Bundesliga match on February 14, 2026, 3:30 PM
This is a mid-table clash with only three points separating the two teams
Form
Hamburger SV form: LDDDW (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games)
FC Union Berlin form: DDLLD (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 games)
HSV shows an upward trend with a win in their last match, while Union Berlin is winless in five games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, HSV averages 1.05 goals per game this season, while Union Berlin averages 1.24
Defensively, HSV is significantly more stable at home, conceding only 0.79 goals per game
In contrast, Union Berlin is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.12 goals
In 80% of the last five matches at the Volksparkstadion, both teams scored
Head-to-Head
In the only previous encounter, the two teams played out a 0-0 draw
Neither team has been able to gain an advantage in head-to-head matches so far
The goal difference is balanced at 0-0
Key Players
Fábio Vieira is a creative force in HSV's midfield with 2 season goals and 4 assists
Defender Luka Vuskovic is a constant threat from set pieces, having scored 4 goals
For Union Berlin, Ilyas Ansah is the top scorer with 5 goals
Rani Khedira and Danilho Doekhi have also contributed significantly with 4 season goals each
Goalkeepers
Daniel Heuer Fernandes of HSV has kept 6 clean sheets this season
His current form trend is rising
Frederik Rönnow of Union Berlin has managed 4 clean sheets so far
His form is declining according to the data
Influences
The Volksparkstadion is a venue for goals, with an average of 2.8 goals in the last five matches
HSV's home advantage is significant, especially defensively, where they concede only 0.79 goals per game at home
Union Berlin must overcome their glaring defensive weakness away from home (2.12 goals conceded)