Bundesliga
VfB Stuttgart - FC Köln
02/14/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.7
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
28%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Stuttgart's solid home record meets Köln's vulnerable away defense, which concedes an average of 2.12 goals per away game
- Head-to-head advantage: Stuttgart is unbeaten in the last five meetings with Köln (3 wins, 2 draws) and holds an 8:2 goal difference
- Offensive dominance: Stuttgart is dominant in possession (61%) and has significantly more shots on target (6.6 per game) than Köln (3.8), supporting the mathematical prediction of 1.61 expected goals
Risk Factors
- Inconsistent form: Both teams have shown fluctuating performances recently, making the match more unpredictable
- Stuttgart's offensive dip: According to advanced stats, Stuttgart's recent goal production (1.6 goals per game) is below their season average (1.9), indicating a slight dip in finishing
- Injury concerns: Both teams have a significant number of injured players, which could affect squad depth and available options
Overview
VfB Stuttgart, 6th in the table with 39 points, hosts FC Köln, who are in 10th place with 23 points
The Bundesliga match will take place on February 14, 2026, at 6:30 PM at the MHPArena
Stuttgart enters the match as the favorite, supported by a 48% probability of a home win
Form
VfB Stuttgart form (all competitions): LWWWL
In the last 5 matches, Stuttgart has secured 3 wins and suffered 2 losses
FC Köln form (all competitions): LWLWL
Köln's form has been inconsistent with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 games
In the league, Stuttgart's form is LWLWW, while Köln's is WWDLL
Statistics
Stuttgart scores an average of 1.81 goals per game this season and concedes 1.33
At home, their average is 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded
Köln averages 1.43 goals per game and concedes 1.62
Köln's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.12 goals per game
Head-to-Head
VfB Stuttgart is unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head encounters
The record stands at 3 wins for Stuttgart and 2 draws
The goal difference is 8:2 in favor of Stuttgart
The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Stuttgart
Key Players
Deniz Undav is VfB Stuttgart's top scorer with 11 season goals and 3 assists
Jamie Leweling has contributed with 5 goals and 5 assists
For FC Köln, Jakub Kamiński is a key player in attack with 5 season goals
Ragnar Ache and Marius Bülter have both scored 3 goals and provided 3 assists each
Goalkeepers
Alexander Nübel of VfB Stuttgart has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Marvin Schwäbe of FC Köln has managed 3 clean sheets
Influences
The MHPArena has seen relatively high-scoring games recently, with an average of 2.6 goals per match
Both teams have scored in 60% of the recent games at this stadium
Stuttgart's strong home record meets Köln's significant away weakness, especially in defense