Champions League
Real Madrid - Benfica
02/25/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
6%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
28%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Real Madrid's offense is severely weakened by injuries, with only 9% of the season's goalscorers available and top scorer Kylian Mbappé (13 goals) missing
- Benfica's attack is also weakened, with only 33% of their seasonal goal threat on the pitch
- Benfica's extremely strong away defense (only 0.5 goals conceded per game) faces a heavily depleted Real Madrid attack
Risk Factors
- Both teams have had only four days of rest since their last match, which could lead to potential fatigue
- The head-to-head record of recent encounters is completely balanced, with one win for each side
- The available data on Real Madrid's expected goals (xG) in recent games is limited, making analysis more difficult
Overview
Real Madrid (9th place, 15 points) meets Benfica (24th place, 9 points) at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
This is a Champions League match on February 25, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Both teams are looking to gather crucial points in the league phase to advance
Form
Real Madrid's form in the last five games is WWWWL, which corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss
They recently suffered a defeat that ended a four-game winning streak
Benfica's form is DWWLW, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
The visitors won their last match and are in solid form
Statistics
Offensively, both teams are at a similar level, with Real Madrid scoring 2.16 goals per game and Benfica 2.09
Defensively, Benfica is statistically stronger with only 0.59 goals conceded per game compared to Real Madrid's 0.84
Benfica is particularly stable away from home, conceding only 0.5 goals on average
Many goals have been scored at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu recently, with an average of 4.6 goals in the last five matches
Head-to-Head
In the last two direct encounters, the record is completely balanced
Both teams have each won one match
The goal difference is narrowly in Benfica's favor at 4:3
Real Madrid won the last meeting 1-0
Key Players
For Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior with 2 goals and 4 assists, and Arda GĂŒler with 4 assists could be decisive
Eduardo Camavinga has also contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season
For Benfica, Andreas Schjelderup with 3 goals and 1 assist, and Vangelis Pavlidis with 2 goals and 2 assists are important attacking forces
Fredrik Aursnes is a key playmaker for the Portuguese side with 4 assists
Goalkeepers
In goal for Real Madrid is Thibaut Courtois
His team has kept 11 clean sheets this season
Benfica's goalkeeper is Anatoliy Trubin
His team has also managed to keep a clean sheet 11 times this season
Influences
Real Madrid has a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 2.23 goals per home game while conceding only 0.62
The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu has recently been the scene of high-scoring games, with over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 5 matches
In 80% of Real Madrid's last home games, both teams have scored