Champions League
Paris Saint Germain - Monaco
02/25/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.3
1.4
1:1
11%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%2:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
25%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
42%
Under 3.5
58%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Drastically reduced attacking power: Monaco has only 21% of their season's goal threat available, and PSG is also significantly weakened with only 40%
- PSG's fortress Parc des Princes: At home, the team averages 2.31 goals scored and concedes only 0.31 goals per game
- Monaco's vulnerable defense: The defense is particularly weak away from home, conceding an average of 2.12 goals
Risk Factors
- PSG also weakened: With only 40% of their available seasonal goal threat, the home team is also missing key offensive power
- Monaco's improved attack: Despite the absences, Monaco has been scoring more frequently recently (avg. 2.25 goals) than their season average and has won 3 of the last 5 games
Overview
Paris Saint Germain (11th place, 14 points) host Monaco (21st place, 10 points) at the Parc des Princes
This is a Champions League match on February 25, 2026, 9:00 PM
PSG enter the match as favorites based on league position and home advantage
The mathematical analysis gives PSG a 47% probability of winning
Form
Paris Saint Germain form (all competitions): WWLWW
The team has recorded 4 wins and 1 loss from their last 5 matches
They are currently on a two-game winning streak
Monaco form (all competitions): WDWLW
Monaco have won 3 of their last 5 games, with 1 draw and 1 loss
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Paris Saint Germain is extremely dangerous in front of goal, averaging 2.26 goals per game
Their defense is very strong with only 0.83 goals conceded per game, especially at home (avg. 0.31)
Monaco scores an average of 1.65 goals per game but is vulnerable defensively, particularly away with 2.12 goals conceded per game
In the last 5 matches at the Parc des Princes, there has been an average of 3.2 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Paris Saint Germain won 3 times, while Monaco recorded 1 victory, and 1 match ended in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in favor of PSG at 11:6
The last meeting was won by PSG away with a score of 3:2
Key Players
For Paris Saint Germain, the focus is on Vitinha (5 season goals, 1 assist), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (3 goals, 3 assists), and Désiré Doué (4 goals)
For Monaco, the key players are Folarin Balogun (5 season goals), Maghnes Akliouche (3 assists), and Denis Zakaria
Goalkeepers
In goal, Matvey Safonov for Paris Saint Germain faces Philipp Köhn for Monaco
This season, PSG has kept 12 clean sheets
Monaco has managed this in 5 matches
Influences
The home advantage for Paris Saint Germain at the Parc des Princes is significant
They score an average of 2.31 goals at home and concede only 0.31
The stadium's recent match statistics suggest a high-scoring game (avg. 3.2 goals, 80% of games over 2.5 goals)