Champions League
Monaco - Paris Saint Germain
02/17/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
28%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Severely weakened offenses: Monaco enters with only 14% of its seasonal goal threat, while PSG also has only 43% available, significantly reducing the attacking power of both teams
- Tactical contrast: PSG's dominant, possession-based style (66% possession) meets Monaco's more balanced approach
- Form versus class: Monaco is unbeaten in five games but faces a PSG team that is statistically superior over the entire season
Risk Factors
- Unpredictability due to absences: The massive reduction in goal threat on both sides (14% for Monaco, 43% for PSG) makes the match outcome harder to predict
- PSG's dip in form: The 1-3 loss in the last match ended Paris Saint Germain's winning streak and could affect their confidence
- Monaco's goal drought risk: Despite recent good form, Monaco has failed to score in 6 of 22 games this season
Overview
Monaco (21st place, 10 points) hosts Paris Saint Germain (11th place, 14 points) at Stade Louis II. for a Champions League clash
The match takes place on February 17, 2026, at 9:00 PM
Mathematical models suggest a very balanced game, with a slight edge for Monaco (38% win probability) over PSG (35%)
Form
Monaco's form (all competitions): DDWDW
From the last five matches, Monaco has 2 wins and 3 draws, remaining unbeaten
Paris Saint Germain's form (all competitions): WDWWL
PSG has won 3 of their last five games, with one draw and one loss
Their last match ended in a defeat
Statistics
Paris Saint Germain boasts a significantly stronger offense, averaging 2.23 goals per game compared to Monaco's 1.59
Defensively, PSG is also more solid with only 0.86 goals conceded per game, versus Monaco's 1.55
Matches at Stade Louis II. average 3.2 goals, and in 80% of the last five games, there were more than 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Paris Saint Germain has the upper hand with 3 wins, while Monaco won once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference also clearly favors PSG with 13:6 goals
However, Monaco won the most recent meeting 1-0
Key Players
For Monaco, Folarin Balogun (3 season goals) and Simon Adingra, who scored 2 goals in his last three appearances, could be dangerous
Denis Zakaria is showing rising form with one goal in the last five games
For Paris Saint Germain, all eyes are on Vitinha (5 season goals, 1 assist) and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (3 goals, 3 assists)
Ousmane Dembélé is in outstanding form, having been directly involved in five goals in the last five matches (3 goals, 2 assists)
Goalkeepers
Monaco's goalkeeper is Philipp Köhn
This season, his team has kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches
In goal for Paris Saint Germain is Matvey Safonov
His team has already managed 11 clean sheets in 22 season matches
Influences
Monaco has a solid home record, averaging 1.56 goals scored and only 1.19 goals conceded per game at Stade Louis II.
Recent matches at this stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game
Four of the last five home games have seen over 2.5 goals