Champions League
Borussia Dortmund - Atalanta
02/17/2026, 08:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.3
1.5
1:1
11%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%2:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
25%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
42%
Under 3.5
58%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Strong home record: Dortmund is a force at Signal Iduna Park, averaging 2.17 goals per home game
- Atalanta's offensive power weakened: According to stats, only 21% of regular goalscorers are available in the current squad
- Good attacking form from both teams: The mathematical analysis expects goals on both sides (66% probability) with 1.81 expected home goals
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time for Atalanta: The visitors had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Atalanta's strong current form: Despite absences, Atalanta has won its last 3 games and been defensively solid (only 0.5 goals conceded on average in recent games)
Overview
Borussia Dortmund (17th place, 11 points) hosts Atalanta (15th place, 13 points) at Signal Iduna Park
Champions League match on February 17, 2026, 9:00 PM
Both teams are close in the standings and are fighting for a better position in the group stage
Form
Borussia Dortmund form: WLWWW (4 wins, 1 loss)
Atalanta form: LDWWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Both teams are in strong form, having won their last 3 consecutive matches
Statistics
Dortmund scores an average of 2.14 goals per game this season, while Atalanta scores 1.36
Defensively, Dortmund concedes 0.91 goals, and Atalanta concedes 0.84
At home, Dortmund is particularly strong with 2.17 goals per game and only 0.67 goals conceded
Atalanta scores 1.4 goals and concedes 1.1 goals away from home
Head-to-Head
In 2 previous encounters, Dortmund has won once, with 1 draw
Atalanta is still waiting for a victory
The goal difference is 4:3 in favor of Borussia Dortmund
The last match ended in a 1-1 draw, but that was several years ago (2018)
Key Players
Serhou Guirassy (3 season goals, 2 assists), in outstanding form with 5 goals in the last 5 games
Julian Ryerson (1 season assist), who has provided 5 assists in his last 4 appearances
Julian Brandt (3 season goals), an important part of Dortmund's offense
Éderson (1 season goal, 1 assist), recently successful as a goalscorer
Mario Pašalić (1 season goal), directly involved in 2 goals in his last 3 games (1 goal, 1 assist)
Gianluca Scamacca (2 season goals), who represents a constant goal threat
Goalkeepers
Gregor Kobel of Dortmund has kept 11 clean sheets in 22 season matches
Atalanta's team has kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches
Marco Carnesecchi has shown strong performances for Atalanta with an average season rating of 7.24
Influences
Signal Iduna Park is a fortress for Dortmund, with a scoring average of 2.17 and only 0.67 goals conceded per home game
The recent matches at the stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals per game
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of the last 5 home games