Champions League
Benfica - Real Madrid
02/17/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
6%2:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
27%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Significant squad issues: Both teams are missing a large part of their goal threat, with data suggesting only about 33% of the usual goal production is available
- Psychological advantage for Benfica: The home team won the last head-to-head encounter 4-2 at the same stadium just a few weeks ago
- Balanced prediction: The mathematical analysis shows almost even odds with 37% (home win), 28% (draw), and 35% (away win), highlighting the unpredictability
Risk Factors
- Potential fatigue for Real Madrid: The team has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to signs of strain
- Key absence: The absence of Jude Bellingham (hamstring injury) deprives Real Madrid of a central figure in midfield
- Unpredictable attack: With both teams missing a significant portion of their seasonal goalscorers, the actual offensive output is difficult to predict
Overview
Benfica (24th place, 9 points) hosts Real Madrid (9th place, 15 points) at the EstĂĄdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica
Champions League match on February 17, 2026, 9:00 PM
A clash of European giants where both teams are aiming to improve their position in the league phase
The mathematical forecast is very balanced with a 37% chance for a home win, 28% for a draw, and 35% for an away win
Form
Benfica form: WWDWW
In the last 5 matches, Benfica has secured 4 wins and 1 draw, remaining unbeaten
The team is on an excellent run of form
Real Madrid form: WLWWW
Real Madrid has also won 4 of their last 5 matches
Their only defeat in this series was away against today's opponent, Benfica
Statistics
Both teams have been extremely potent in front of goal this season
Benfica averages 2.09 goals per game over the season (2.08 at home)
Real Madrid has an average of 2.21 goals per game (2.18 away)
Defensively, Benfica is slightly more stable with only 0.59 goals conceded per game compared to Real Madrid's 0.79
Matches at the EstĂĄdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica are often high-scoring, with an average of 3.6 goals in the last 5 games
Head-to-Head
The only direct encounter in recent history took place just a few weeks ago
Benfica won that home match on January 28, 2026, with a score of 4-2
This gives Benfica the edge in the head-to-head record
Key Players
Vangelis Pavlidis is in outstanding form for Benfica with 5 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances
Andreas Schjelderup has also been clinical with 3 goals in the last 5 games
Fredrik Aursnes is a key creator in midfield with 4 assists this season
For Real Madrid, Kylian Mbappé is the standout player with 13 season goals in just 7 matches
Vinicius Junior has already contributed 4 assists this season
Arda GĂŒler has also established himself as an important provider with 4 assists
Goalkeepers
Anatoliy Trubin will be in goal for Benfica
Real Madrid's goal will be guarded by Thibaut Courtois
Both teams have kept 11 clean sheets this season, indicating solid defensive performances from both sides
Influences
Benfica is a force at home, averaging 2.08 goals per game while conceding only 0.67
The EstĂĄdio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica is known for high-scoring matches, as shown by the average of 3.6 goals in recent games
Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 80% of Benfica's last home matches