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Copa Del Rey

Real Sociedad - Athletic Club

03/04/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Real Sociedad
1.5
Total xG
3.4
Athletic Club
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RSAC

Real Sociedad

Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
T. Kubo not in starting XI (2 goals, 3 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 100% available)

Athletic Club

Attack strength (1.38x league average)
+1.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.15
Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Unai GĂłmez not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

25%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

65%

Under 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 3.5

57%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

67%

No

33%

Key Factors
  • Athletic Club is slightly favored by the mathematical model with a 43% win probability
  • High scoring potential: Both teams show an upward trend in scoring, and the model predicts a 67% chance for both teams to score and a 65% chance for over 2.5 goals
  • Matchup dynamic: Real Sociedad's solid home attack (1.5 goals per game) faces Athletic Club's vulnerable away defense (1.91 goals conceded per game)
Risk Factors
  • Athletic Club's defensive fragility on the road is a major concern, having conceded an average of 1.91 goals per away match this season
  • Both teams are missing important players due to injury, including T. Kubo for Real Sociedad and N. Williams for Athletic Club, which could impact their offensive capabilities
Overview

Real Sociedad faces Athletic Club at Anoeta Stadium in the Copa Del Rey

The match is on March 4, 2026, at 9:00 PM

A Basque derby with both teams fighting to advance to the next round

Form

Real Sociedad form (all competitions): WWLDW

In the last 5 games, there have been 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Athletic Club form (all competitions): WLWWD

Athletic Club has also recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Real Sociedad scores an average of 1.46 goals per game this season and concedes the same number

Athletic Club averages 1.15 goals per game and concedes 1.38

At home, Real Sociedad is offensively solid with 1.5 goals per game

Athletic Club is defensively vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.91 goals per game

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Real Sociedad has the edge with 2 wins, compared to 1 for Athletic Club and 2 draws

The goal difference is 5-4 in favor of Real Sociedad

The most recent meeting took place recently, with Real Sociedad winning 1-0 away

Key Players

Mikel Oyarzabal is Real Sociedad's top scorer with 10 goals this season, supported by Gonçalo Guedes who has contributed 6 goals and 4 assists

Beñat Turrientes is showing rising form in midfield

For Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta is a key attacker with 6 goals for the season and is in strong form

Iñaki Williams also has a significant impact with 2 goals and 2 assists

Oihan Sancet scored in the last match and is on a positive trend

Goalkeepers

Unai Marrero starts for Real Sociedad

Álex Padilla is in goal for Athletic Club

This season, Athletic Club has kept 5 clean sheets, while Real Sociedad has managed 2

Influences

Anoeta Stadium has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 4.2 goals in the last 5 matches

In all 5 of these games, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

Real Sociedad has a solid home record, averaging 1.5 goals scored per game

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