Copa Del Rey
FC Barcelona - Atlético de Madrid
03/03/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.0
0.9
2:0
11%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
FC Barcelona
Atlético de Madrid
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
22%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Fortress Camp Nou: Barcelona's immense home strength, averaging 2.73 goals scored and only 0.40 conceded per game
- Superior Firepower: Barcelona's attack averages 2.73 goals per game for the season, while Atlético's away defense is vulnerable, conceding 1.62 goals per game
- Current Form Trend: Atlético Madrid enters the match on a three-game winning streak with an improved goal average (2.4 recently)
Risk Factors
- Key Absences for Barcelona: Key players like R. Lewandowski and F. de Jong are missing due to injury, which could impact their offense and midfield
- Short Recovery Time: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
- Psychological Edge for Atlético: Atlético won the most recent head-to-head encounter decisively with a 4-0 victory just a few weeks ago
Overview
In the Copa Del Rey, FC Barcelona hosts Atlético Madrid at Camp Nou
The match takes place on March 3, 2026, 9:00 PM
The mathematical analysis favors FC Barcelona with a 63% probability of winning
Form
FC Barcelona form: WLLWW
In the last 5 games, there have been 3 wins and 2 losses
The team comes into this match with two consecutive wins
Atlético Madrid form: LDWWW
Atlético Madrid has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
The visitors are on a three-game winning streak
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
FC Barcelona is extremely strong at home, scoring an average of 2.73 goals per home game while conceding only 0.40 goals
Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.62 goals away and also concedes 1.62 goals per game
Matches at Camp Nou have recently been very high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last five fixtures
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, FC Barcelona has won 3 times, Atlético Madrid won once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 12:11 in favor of FC Barcelona
However, Atlético Madrid won the last meeting clearly with a 4-0 victory
Key Players
Lamine Yamal (13 season goals, 9 assists)
Ferran Torres (12 season goals, 1 assist)
Raphinha (8 season goals, 3 assists)
Alexander Sørloth (9 season goals, 0 assists)
Julián Alvarez (8 season goals, 3 assists)
Koke (2 season goals, 2 assists)
Goalkeepers
In goal for FC Barcelona is Joan García, whose team has kept 10 clean sheets this season
For Atlético Madrid, Juan Musso is in goal; the team has achieved 11 clean sheets so far
Influences
The home advantage for FC Barcelona is statistically significant, with an impressive record of 41 goals scored and only 6 conceded in 15 home games
The last five matches at Camp Nou have all been high-scoring, with over 2.5 goals in every game
The average total goals at the stadium is 3.8 per match