Bundesliga
FC Köln - TSG Hoffenheim
02/21/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
3.0
1.7
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
27%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Köln is severely weakened by absences, with only 45% of their usual goal-scoring threat on the field
- The form curves of both teams are worlds apart: Hoffenheim has won 4 of the last 5 games, while Köln has lost their last two
- Hoffenheim's attack, averaging 2.22 away goals per game, poses a major threat to the Köln defense
Risk Factors
- Hoffenheim must do without key attacker Tim Lemperle (6 goals, 2 assists), meaning about 30% of their goal threat is missing
- The head-to-head record slightly favors Köln, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters and lost only one
Overview
FC Köln, currently in 12th place with 23 points, hosts TSG Hoffenheim, who are in 3rd place with 45 points
The Bundesliga match will take place on February 21, 2026, at 3:30 PM at the RheinEnergieStadion
Hoffenheim is looking to solidify a Champions League spot, while Köln is gathering points to avoid relegation
Form
FC Köln form: W-L-W-L-L
The home team has won 2 of their last 5 matches and lost 3, including the last two games
TSG Hoffenheim form: W-W-W-L-W
The visitors are in strong form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Hoffenheim is significantly more dangerous in front of goal with 47 season goals (avg 2.14 per game) compared to Köln's 31 goals (avg 1.41)
The visitors are also more stable defensively, having conceded 28 goals (avg 1.27), while Köln has conceded 37 (avg 1.68)
Hoffenheim's attack is particularly strong away from home, scoring an average of 2.22 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, there have been 2 wins for FC Köln, 1 win for TSG Hoffenheim, and 2 draws
The goal difference is narrow at 7:6 in favor of Köln
FC Köln won the last meeting 1-0
Key Players
Ragnar Ache has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists for Köln this season, scoring 3 of his goals in the last 5 games
Jakub Kamiński is a key offensive player for the home team with 5 goals this season
Jan Thielmann has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist so far
Andrej Kramaric is the top scorer for Hoffenheim with 9 goals and 4 assists, and has scored 4 times in the last 5 matches
Fisnik Asllani has been impressive this season with 7 goals and 5 assists
Wouter Burger is a central midfielder with 4 goals and 6 assists
Goalkeepers
Marvin Schwäbe is in goal for FC Köln and has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Oliver Baumann is the goalkeeper for TSG Hoffenheim and has already finished 6 matches with a clean sheet
Influences
The RheinEnergieStadion has seen an average of 2.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 3 of these 5 games, both teams scored and there were more than 2.5 goals
Köln scores an average of 1.46 goals at home and concedes 1.31