Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 - Hamburger SV
02/20/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.0
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
27%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Massive weakening of HSV: Due to absences, only 29% of the seasonal goal threat is available in the squad, with key players like Luka Vuskovic (4 goals) and Albert Sambi Lokonga (4 goals) missing
- Extremely vulnerable away defense: Hamburger SV concedes an average of 3.6 goals per away game, which is a significant disadvantage
- Contrasting form curves: While HSV is unbeaten in 5 games, Mainz has won 3 of their last 5 and shows a positive attacking trend (averaging 1.6 goals recently)
Risk Factors
- Mainz's weak home record: The team scores only 1.09 goals per game on average at home and has failed to score in 9 matches this season
- Recent H2H result: The last direct encounter ended in a dominant 4-0 victory for Hamburger SV, which could be a psychological factor
- Open match according to predictions: Mathematical models predict a close game with a slight tendency towards an away win (42%) or a draw (27%)
Overview
FSV Mainz 05, in 14th place with 21 points, hosts Hamburger SV, 9th with 25 points
The Bundesliga match will take place on February 20, 2026, at 8:30 PM at the Mewa Arena
Both teams are fighting for crucial points to avoid relegation
Form
FSV Mainz 05 form: LWWWL
In the last 5 games, there were 3 wins and 2 losses
The most recent match was a 0-4 loss to Borussia Dortmund
Hamburger SV form: DDDWW
HSV is unbeaten in their last 5 games, with 2 wins and 3 draws
They have won their last two matches consecutively
Statistics
Both teams have a similar goal rate, averaging 1.14 goals per game
Defensively, Mainz is more vulnerable with 1.68 goals conceded per game compared to HSV's 1.48
HSV's defense is particularly weak in away games, conceding an average of 3.6 goals
Mainz is more stable defensively at home, conceding only 1.18 goals on average
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Mainz won twice, Hamburg won once, and 2 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is 6:7 from Mainz's perspective
The last meeting was a clear 4-0 victory for Hamburger SV
Key Players
Nadiem Amiri is in top form with 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 4 appearances for Mainz
Jae-sung Lee is a key figure in midfield, having started in all of the last 5 matches
Phillip Tietz plays as the central striker and has been directly involved in 2 goals in the last 5 games
Fábio Vieira is a key player in HSV's midfield, with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Ransford Königsdörffer is showing rising form, recently scoring 3 goals in 2 matches
Miro Muheim is an important part of the defense and has already provided 4 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Daniel Batz will be in goal for Mainz, having kept 2 clean sheets in 10 appearances this season
Hamburger SV's goal is defended by Daniel Heuer Fernandes, who has already kept 6 clean sheets in 21 league matches
Influences
An average of 2.2 goals are scored per game at the Mewa Arena
In only 40% of Mainz's last 5 home games, both teams scored
Mainz has a rather reserved attack at home with 1.09 goals per game, but is defensively solid with only 1.18 goals conceded
HSV is extremely vulnerable away, conceding an average of 3.6 goals per game