Bundesliga
St. Pauli - Werder Bremen
02/22/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
29%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Direct relegation battle: As 17th against 16th, there is a huge amount at stake for both teams, increasing the intensity
- Catastrophic form of Werder Bremen: The visitors are winless in five games (LLDLL) and have scored only one goal in their last five matches
- Weakened attack for St. Pauli: Due to the absence of Andréas Hountondji (4 season goals), the home team only has 55% of its usual goal threat available
Risk Factors
- Historical record: The head-to-head comparison clearly favors Werder Bremen with four wins from five matches, which contradicts their current form
- Weak offensive lines: Both teams struggle significantly to score goals, which increases the likelihood of a low-scoring game (Over 2.5 probability at only 49%)
- Bremen's offense weakened: The visitors have only 64% of their seasonal goal threat available, further limiting their ability to score
Overview
Relegation battle in the Bundesliga: St. Pauli (17th place, 17 points) hosts Werder Bremen (16th place, 19 points) at the Millerntor-Stadion
The match takes place on February 22, 2026, 5:30 PM
This is a crucial game for both teams in the fight for survival, with only two points separating them
Form
St. Pauli has mixed form with a record of DDLWL from the last five games
This amounts to one win, two draws, and two losses
Werder Bremen is in a deep crisis, having collected only one point from their last five matches (LLDLL)
The visitors have lost four of their last five games and are without a point in their last two matches
Statistics
Both teams have defensive problems: St. Pauli concedes an average of 1.77 goals per game, while Werder Bremen concedes 1.91
Offensively, both teams are also struggling, with St. Pauli scoring 0.91 goals per game and Bremen exactly 1.0
Bremen's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.1 goals
St. Pauli has failed to score in 9 of 22 matches, Werder Bremen in 10 of 22
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record clearly favors Werder Bremen
In the last five encounters, there were four wins for Bremen and one draw
St. Pauli has not won any of these duels
The goal difference is 9-1 in favor of Werder Bremen
Bremen also won the last match 1-0
Key Players
For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani (4 goals, 2 assists) and Eric Smith (2 goals, 2 assists) are important players in attack
Martijn Kaars has contributed 3 goals this season
For Werder Bremen, Jens Stage is the top scorer with 6 goals
Romano Schmid (2 goals, 5 assists) and Justin Njinmah (4 goals) are also crucial for the offense
Goalkeepers
In goal for St. Pauli is Nikola Vasilj, who has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Werder Bremen's goalkeeper is Mio Backhaus, who has managed 4 clean sheets so far
Both goalkeepers are often tested in their defensively vulnerable teams
Influences
St. Pauli has a slight advantage at the Millerntor-Stadion but still concedes an average of 1.42 goals per home game
Recent matches at the stadium have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 1.8 goals in the last five games
Werder Bremen's away record is weak, with an average of 2.1 goals conceded per game on the road