Bundesliga
RB Leipzig - Borussia Dortmund
02/21/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.4
1.8
1:1
11%1:2
9%2:1
8%2:2
7%0:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
25%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
67%
No
33%
Key Factors
- Borussia Dortmund's outstanding form with four consecutive wins contrasts sharply with RB Leipzig's inconsistency
- Dortmund's defensive stability is a key advantage, conceding an average of only 0.91 goals per game compared to Leipzig's 1.36
- Two offensive concepts clash: Leipzig's high-frequency attack (6.2 shots on target per game) against Dortmund's stable defense
Risk Factors
- Despite Dortmund's strong form, the head-to-head record favors RB Leipzig, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters
- Dortmund must play without two key defenders, N. Schlotterbeck and N. SĆ¼le, which could weaken their defense
- Leipzig is also weakened by the absence of starting goalkeeper P. GulƔcsi and midfielder X. Schlager
Overview
RB Leipzig (5th place, 40 points) host Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 51 points) at the Red Bull Arena
Top Bundesliga match on February 21, 2026, 6:30 PM
A key game in the race for the Champions League spots and the title
Form
Borussia Dortmund is in outstanding form, having won their last 4 consecutive matches
Their overall form from the last five games (all competitions) is LWWWW (4 wins, 1 loss)
RB Leipzig's form is more inconsistent with a record of WDLWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Borussia Dortmund has a slightly stronger attack, averaging 2.14 goals per game compared to RB Leipzig's 1.91
Defensively, Dortmund is significantly more solid, conceding only 0.91 goals per game versus Leipzig's 1.36
Both teams are potent: Leipzig scores an average of 1.92 goals at home, while Dortmund nets an impressive 2.1 goals away
Both teams scored in 12 of Leipzig's 22 games and 11 of Dortmund's 22 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig has had the clear upper hand
The record stands at 3 wins for Leipzig, one win for Dortmund, and one draw
The goal difference also favors Leipzig at 11:6
The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
Christoph Baumgartner (8 goals, 7 assists), Yan Diomande (8 goals, 4 assists), and RĆ“mulo (6 goals, 4 assists) are the driving forces in Leipzig's attack
For Dortmund, Serhou Guirassy stands out with 11 goals this season and is in hot form with 5 goals in his last 4 games
He is supported by Karim Adeyemi (5 goals, 2 assists) and midfielder Felix Nmecha (2 goals, 3 assists)
Goalkeepers
Maarten Vandevoordt is in goal for RB Leipzig, as starting goalkeeper GulƔcsi is injured
The team has kept a total of 9 clean sheets this season
For Borussia Dortmund, Gregor Kobel is the clear number one and has already kept 11 clean sheets this season
Influences
RB Leipzig enjoys a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 1.92 goals per game at the Red Bull Arena
Recent matches at this stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last five fixtures
Both teams scored in 3 of these 5 games