Bundesliga
Heidenheim - VfB Stuttgart
02/22/2026, 06:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
3.7
2.6
1:2
9%1:3
8%0:3
7%2:2
5%1:4
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
14%
Draw
19%
Away Win
67%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
71%
Under 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
50%
Under 3.5
50%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
33%
Away or Draw
86%
No Draw
81%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Class difference and form: Fourth-placed Stuttgart in top form (WWLWW) meets bottom-of-the-table Heidenheim in a deep crisis (DLLLL)
- Offensive firepower: Stuttgart's attack, with players like Undav and Demirovic, is in scintillating form, averaging 1.86 goals per game and 2.4 recently
- Weakened host: Heidenheim has significant personnel issues in attack, with only 37% of their goal threat available due to the absence of players like Stefan Schimmer (5 goals)
Risk Factors
- Fatigue for the visitors: VfB Stuttgart has had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to signs of fatigue
- Balanced history: Despite the current form, the head-to-head record is even with two wins each and a draw, suggesting a tricky opponent
Overview
In the Bundesliga, last-placed Heidenheim (18th place, 13 points) hosts VfB Stuttgart (4th place, 42 points)
The match will take place on February 22, 2026, 7:30 PM at the Voith-Arena
The roles are clearly defined: Stuttgart are the clear favorites, underlined by a mathematical win probability of 67%
Form
Heidenheim is in a deep crisis with the form DLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They have taken just one point from their last five games and are on a four-game losing streak
In contrast, VfB Stuttgart arrives with a lot of confidence, with their form being WWLWW
The visitors have won four of their last five matches
Statistics
VfB Stuttgart has one of the strongest attacks in the league, averaging 1.86 goals per game
Heidenheim has significant problems in attack, with only 0.86 goals scored per game
The difference in defense is just as stark: Stuttgart concedes 1.32 goals per game, while Heidenheim has the weakest defense with 2.18 goals conceded
Heidenheim has not kept a single clean sheet this season
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between the two teams is surprisingly balanced
In the last five encounters, there have been two wins for Heidenheim, two for Stuttgart, and one draw
The goal difference is also exactly even at 7:7
The last duel was won by VfB Stuttgart 1-0
Key Players
For Heidenheim, midfielder Julian Niehues stands out with 3 season goals, two of which came in the last five games
Defensive leader Patrick Mainka is the most consistent player on the team with a rating of 7.01
Arijon Ibrahimovic has already provided 3 assists
For VfB Stuttgart, Deniz Undav is the standout player with 12 goals and 4 assists
Ermedin Demirovic (7 goals) and Jamie Leweling (5 goals, 6 assists) are also in excellent form
Goalkeepers
A clear duel in favor of the visitors
Stuttgart's goalkeeper Alexander Nübel has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Heidenheim's Diant Ramaj, on the other hand, is still waiting for his first clean sheet of the season
Influences
The Voith-Arena has not been a fortress for Heidenheim this season
The team averages only 0.83 goals scored and concedes 2.0 goals at home
An average of 3.2 goals have been scored in the last five home games, which could indicate a high-scoring match
The models expect 1.14 goals for Heidenheim and 2.56 for Stuttgart