Bundesliga
Bayer 04 Leverkusen - FSV Mainz 05
02/28/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.6
0.8
1:1
12%2:0
12%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
26%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Leverkusen's massive home strength (2.0 goals scored per game) meets Mainz's extreme away weakness (2.18 goals conceded per game)
- The head-to-head record speaks volumes: 4 wins and 1 draw for Leverkusen in the last 5 meetings
- The mathematical analysis clearly favors Leverkusen with a 58% win probability
Risk Factors
- Leverkusen has to do without important offensive players, with only 65% of their goal-scoring threat available, as Malik Tillman, among others, is missing
- Mainz is showing a positive form trend and, according to statistics, has been scoring more frequently recently (1.6 goals per game) than their season average
- The home team had a shorter recovery time of only 4 days since their last match
Overview
Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 39 points) hosts FSV Mainz 05 (13th place, 22 points) at the BayArena
Bundesliga match on February 28, 2026, 3:30 PM
Leverkusen is aiming for a spot in European competition, while Mainz is trying to pull away from the relegation zone
Form
Leverkusen form: DWWLD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games)
FSV Mainz 05 form: WWWLD (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last 5 games)
Mainz has recently been in slightly better form than the home team
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Leverkusen is significantly stronger offensively with an average of 1.95 goals per game compared to Mainz's 1.13
The home team is also more stable defensively, conceding an average of 1.27 goals, while Mainz concedes 1.65
The difference is particularly stark in home and away games
Leverkusen scores an average of 2.0 goals at home and concedes only 0.83, whereas Mainz concedes an average of 2.18 goals away
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct duels, Leverkusen clearly dominated with 4 wins and one draw
Mainz failed to win any of these matches
The goal difference is 12:6 in favor of Leverkusen
The last encounter ended in a 4:3 victory for Leverkusen
Key Players
Alejandro Grimaldo is a key player for Leverkusen with 5 goals and 5 assists
Striker Patrik Schick has already scored 7 goals this season
Aleix GarcĂa controls the game in midfield and has contributed 5 assists
For Mainz, Nadiem Amiri is the standout player with 10 season goals and 2 assists
Jae-sung Lee is also important in midfield (2 goals, 2 assists)
Phillip Tietz is another option in attack with 1 goal and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
In goal for Leverkusen is Janis Blaswich
His team has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Daniel Batz is the goalkeeper for Mainz 05
Mainz has only managed to keep 2 clean sheets this season
Influences
Leverkusen enjoys a strong home advantage and is very dangerous at the BayArena (2.0 goals per home game)
Their defense is also very stable at home (0.83 goals conceded per game)
In the last 5 matches at this stadium, there has been an average of 2.6 goals
Both teams scored in only one of these 5 matches