🇩🇪

Bundesliga

TSG Hoffenheim - St. Pauli

02/28/2026, 02:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
TSG Hoffenheim
1.8
Total xG
3.1
St. Pauli
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
THSP

TSG Hoffenheim

Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Tim Lemperle not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)

St. Pauli

Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.04
Andréas Hountondji not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 54% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Attacking mismatch: Hoffenheim's strong home record (2.08 goals/game) meets St. Pauli's extremely vulnerable away defense (2.44 goals conceded/game)
  • Weakened St. Pauli attack: Only 55% of their goal-scoring threat is available in the squad, significantly reducing their offensive power
  • Diverging circumstances: Third-placed Hoffenheim in good form faces relegation-threatened 16th-placed St. Pauli with inconsistent performances
Risk Factors
  • Balanced record: The historical head-to-head record is even, and St. Pauli has won at Hoffenheim before
  • Hoffenheim's defensive vulnerability: Recently, Hoffenheim conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game, which is above their season average of 1.36
Overview

TSG Hoffenheim (3rd place, 46 points) hosts St. Pauli (16th place, 20 points) at the PreZero Arena

The Bundesliga match will take place on February 28, 2026, at 3:30 PM

Hoffenheim aims to solidify a top position, while St. Pauli is fighting for survival

Form

TSG Hoffenheim form: WWLWD

In the last 5 games, Hoffenheim achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and suffered 1 loss

St. Pauli form: DLWLW

St. Pauli managed 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, with 2 losses

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

TSG Hoffenheim's attack, averaging 2.13 goals per game, is significantly stronger than St. Pauli's (0.96 goals)

Hoffenheim is particularly strong at home, scoring an average of 2.08 goals

St. Pauli's defense is very vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.44 goals per game

In Hoffenheim's home games, over 2.5 goals have been scored in 16 out of 23 matches

Head-to-Head

The record in the last 5 head-to-head encounters is perfectly balanced

Both teams have won 2 matches each, with one draw

The goal difference is 6:5 in favor of TSG Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim won the last meeting 3-0

Key Players

Andrej Kramaric is the top scorer for Hoffenheim with 10 season goals and 4 assists, and is in rising form

Fisnik Asllani has contributed 7 goals and 5 assists

Wouter Burger is a key midfielder with 4 goals and 6 assists

For St. Pauli, Danel Sinani is the most dangerous player with 4 goals and 3 assists

Eric Smith has scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists this season

Martijn Kaars has been successful as a goalscorer 3 times so far

Goalkeepers

Oliver Baumann of TSG Hoffenheim has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Nikola Vasilj in goal for St. Pauli has managed 3 clean sheets so far

Influences

TSG Hoffenheim has a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 2.08 goals and conceding just 1.0 at the PreZero Arena

The last 5 matches at this stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals per game

In 80% of these recent home games, there were over 2.5 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.