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Bundesliga

Hamburger SV - RB Leipzig

03/01/2026, 06:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Hamburger SV
1.5
Total xG
3.2
RB Leipzig
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
HSRL

Hamburger SV

Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.18
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.06
Ransford Königsdörffer not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Albert Sambi Lokonga not in starting XI (4 goals, 0 assists)
48% of goal output missing (only 52% available)

RB Leipzig

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.28
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.12
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.05
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.01
Assan Ouédraogo not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

26%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Critical personnel issues for HSV: The home team has only 52% of its seasonal goal-scoring threat available, significantly weakening their attack
  • Statistical superiority of Leipzig: Despite recent poor form, RB Leipzig is the stronger team over the whole season, especially in attack (1.91 vs 1.14 goals per game)
  • Mathematical forecast: The calculations favor Leipzig with a 41% win probability, likely due to HSV's significant player absences
Risk Factors
  • Leipzig's poor form: The visitors have won only one of their last five matches, and their goal production is declining according to statistics (from 2.0 to 1.6 goals)
  • HSV's strong run: Hamburg is unbeaten in five games and shows a positive trend in goal scoring (from 1.4 to 2.0 goals per game)
Overview

Hamburger SV (11th place, 26 points) hosts RB Leipzig (5th place, 41 points) at the Volksparkstadion

The Bundesliga match kicks off on March 1, 2026, 7:30 PM

The visitors from Leipzig are fighting for European spots, while HSV is in the mid-table

Form

Hamburger SV's form: DDWWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

HSV is unbeaten in their last five matches, with 2 wins and 3 draws

RB Leipzig's form: DLWDD

RB Leipzig has managed to win only one of their last five games (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

Statistics

RB Leipzig is significantly stronger offensively, averaging 1.91 goals per game compared to Hamburger SV's 1.14 goals

Defensively, the numbers are more similar, with Leipzig conceding 1.36 goals per game and HSV 1.45

Leipzig is particularly potent away from home, scoring 1.89 goals per game, while HSV averages 1.12 goals at home

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, RB Leipzig dominated with 3 wins compared to one win for Hamburger SV and one draw

The last match ended in a 2-1 victory for Leipzig

The goal difference also favors the visitors at 9:5

Key Players

Fábió Vieira (3 goals, 4 assists), Rayan Philippe (5 goals), and Luka Vuskovic (4 goals) are key players for HSV

For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner (8 goals, 7 assists), Yan Diomande (8 goals, 4 assists), and Rômulo (6 goals, 4 assists) stand out

Goalkeepers

HSV's Daniel Heuer Fernandes has kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches this season

For Leipzig, Maarten Vandevoordt starts in goal for the injured Péter Gulácsi; the team has achieved a total of 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Volksparkstadion has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals in the last five matches

In four of these five HSV home games, both teams have scored

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