Bundesliga
Werder Bremen - Heidenheim
02/28/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Werder Bremen
Heidenheim
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
28%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Pure relegation battle: The clash between 17th and 18th place promises high intensity, as both teams urgently need points to stay in the league
- Heidenheim's extreme away weakness: Conceding an average of 2.67 goals per away game and having zero clean sheets all season makes their defense the biggest vulnerability
- Clash of crises: Both teams are winless in five games, making the match unpredictable, but giving the home team a slight advantage according to mathematical analysis (39% win probability)
Risk Factors
- Bremen's goal drought: Despite home advantage, Werder has only scored 0.4 goals per game in recent matches, well below their season average of 1.1
- Balanced H2H record: The head-to-head matches are completely balanced with 12:12 goals, suggesting a tight game that could be decided by small details
Overview
In the Bundesliga relegation battle, Werder Bremen (17th place, 19 points) hosts bottom-of-the-table Heidenheim (18th place, 14 points)
The match will take place on February 28, 2026, at 3:30 PM at the Wohninvest Weserstadion
For both teams, this is about crucial points to avoid losing touch with the non-relegation spots
Form
Both teams are in a deep form crisis
Werder Bremen's form in the last five games: L-D-L-L-L (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses), currently on a three-game losing streak
Heidenheim's form in the last five games: L-L-L-L-D (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)
Both teams are winless in their last five matches
Statistics
Both teams have the weakest defensive lines in the league
Werder Bremen concedes an average of 1.91 goals per game, while Heidenheim concedes 2.22
Heidenheim has not kept a single clean sheet this season (0 clean sheets)
Heidenheim is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.67 goals
Both teams' attacks are also below average, with around one goal per game
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is very balanced
In the last five meetings, there was one win for Werder Bremen, two for Heidenheim, and two draws
The goal difference is exactly identical with 12:12 goals
The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw
Key Players
For Werder Bremen, all eyes are on Jens Stage (6 season goals) and Romano Schmid (5 assists)
Samuel Mbangula has also contributed to the offense with 3 goals and 2 assists
For Heidenheim, Julian Niehues is an important midfielder with 3 season goals
The defensive pillar is captain Patrick Mainka, while Arijon Ibrahimovic provides creativity in midfield (3 assists)
Goalkeepers
Werder Bremen's goal is defended by Mio Backhaus, who has been involved in 4 clean sheets this season
Diant Ramaj is in goal for Heidenheim; the team is still waiting for its first clean sheet of the season
Influences
The home advantage for Werder Bremen could be decisive, as Heidenheim is extremely vulnerable away (2.67 goals conceded per game)
The Wohninvest Weserstadion has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five matches
Although both teams are weak offensively, the poor defenses of both sides and the stadium statistics suggest goals are possible
The mathematical analysis expects 1.52 goals for Bremen and 1.37 for Heidenheim