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Bundesliga

Borussia Mönchengladbach - FC Union Berlin

02/28/2026, 02:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1.2
Total xG
2.8
FC Union Berlin
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
BMFUB

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.96
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.28
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.23

FC Union Berlin

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.11
Andrej Ilic not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

27%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Slight favorites role for the visitors: Mathematical models favor Union Berlin with a 47% win probability (Gladbach 25%)
  • Contrasting form curves: Gladbach is winless in five games (LDDLL), while Union arrives with a win from their last match
  • Defensive weaknesses on both sides: Gladbach concedes 1.75 goals per game at home, Union concedes an even higher 2.0 away
Risk Factors
  • Gladbach's offense is struggling: The team has recently scored only 0.6 goals per game, well below their season average of 1.4
  • Lack of creativity for Union: With Andrej Ilic (8 season assists) missing, a key playmaker is absent, with only 56% of assist production on the field
  • Balanced H2H record: Past encounters have often been close and unpredictable, which puts Union's favorite status into perspective
Overview

Borussia Mönchengladbach (14th place, 22 points) host FC Union Berlin (10th place, 28 points) at the Stadion im Borussia-Park

Bundesliga match on February 28, 2026, 3:30 PM

The hosts are fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

Borussia Mönchengladbach are winless in their last five matches (Form: LDDLL)

From their last five games, they've managed 2 draws and suffered 3 defeats

FC Union Berlin arrives with a recent victory (Form: LLDLW)

Their record from the last five matches: 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

Statistics

Both defensive lines appear vulnerable

Gladbach concedes an average of 1.75 goals per game at home

Union Berlin are even more susceptible on the road, conceding an average of 2.0 goals

Offensively, Gladbach scores 1.08 goals per home game, while Union averages 1.2 goals away

Gladbach has failed to score in 10 of their 23 league matches this season

Head-to-Head

The record of the last five head-to-head encounters is perfectly balanced

Both teams have won two matches each, with one game ending in a draw

The goal difference is 7-5 in favor of Union Berlin

Union won the last meeting 3-1

Key Players

For Borussia Mönchengladbach, Haris Tabakovic is the top scorer with 11 season goals

Franck Honorat has already provided 5 assists

For Union Berlin, defenders Danilho Doekhi (4 goals) and Leopold Querfeld (2 goals) are dangerous from set-pieces

Rani Khedira has scored 5 goals from midfield

Goalkeepers

Gladbach's goalkeeper Moritz Nicolas has kept 8 clean sheets this season

Frederik Rønnow of FC Union Berlin has managed this in 5 matches

Influences

Gladbach's home record is weak, with only 1.08 goals scored versus 1.75 conceded

At Stadion im Borussia-Park, the last five matches have seen an average of 2.6 goals per game

In 60% of these matches, there were more than 2.5 goals

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