Bundesliga
FC Augsburg - FC Köln
02/27/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.2
1.5
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
FC Augsburg
FC Köln
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
26%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Strong form meets crisis: Augsburg has won 4 of the last 5 games, while Köln has only recorded one victory in the same period
- Köln's glaring away weakness: With an average of 2.5 goals conceded per away game, Köln's defense is extremely vulnerable
- Augsburg's offense severely weakened: Only 46% of the season's goal scorers are available, making the attack unpredictable
Risk Factors
- Weakened Köln attack: The visitors are also missing key offensive players, with only 58% of their seasonal goal threat available
- Historical advantage for Köln: Augsburg has not managed a single win against Köln in the last five head-to-head encounters (3 draws, 2 losses)
Overview
FC Augsburg (10th place, 28 points) hosts FC Köln (12th place, 24 points) at the WWK Arena
Bundesliga match on February 27, 2026, 8:30 PM
Both teams are looking for important points in the mid-table to distance themselves from the relegation zone
Form
FC Augsburg is in excellent form with four wins from their last five matches (WWLWW)
They have recently achieved two consecutive wins
FC Köln, on the other hand, is struggling with form, having won only one of their last five games (LWLLD), with three losses and one draw
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Both defensive lines appear vulnerable, with Augsburg conceding an average of 1.78 goals per game and Köln 1.70
Köln's defense is particularly weak away from home, allowing an average of 2.5 goals
Augsburg scores an average of 1.25 goals at home
The analysis calculates a 65% probability that both teams will score
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record contradicts the current form curve
In the last five encounters, Augsburg has failed to win against Köln (2 losses, 3 draws)
The goal difference from these matches is 6:9 from Augsburg's perspective
The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
For the home team, Alexis Claude-Maurice is a key player with 3 goals and 5 assists, as is Mert Kömür with 2 goals and 3 assists
For the visitors, Said El Mala is the top scorer with 8 goals this season
He is supported by Ragnar Ache (5 goals, 3 assists) and Jakub Kamiński (5 goals)
Goalkeepers
In goal for Augsburg is Finn Dahmen, who has kept 4 clean sheets this season
His counterpart, Marvin Schwäbe of FC Köln, has 3 clean sheets to his name
Both goalkeepers have been beaten frequently this season
Influences
FC Augsburg has a slight home advantage but concedes an average of 1.58 goals at the WWK Arena
FC Köln's major weakness is their away defense, with an average of 2.5 goals conceded
The stats from the last 5 home games at the WWK Arena show an average of 2.0 goals per match