Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund - FC Bayern München
02/28/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.7
2.3
1:2
9%1:3
7%2:2
7%2:1
6%2:3
5%What influences the xG?
Borussia Dortmund
FC Bayern München
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
22%
Away Win
55%
Goals
Over 1.5
90%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
72%
Under 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
51%
Under 3.5
49%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
45%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
70%
No
30%
Key Factors
- Bayern's offense is in a class of its own, averaging 3.7 goals per game, and faces a weakened Dortmund defense
- The visitors from Munich are in significantly better form, unbeaten in 5 games, and travel as favorites, supported by a 55% win probability
- Tactical superiority: Bayern dominates with 60% possession and creates an average of 9.6 shots on goal per game
Risk Factors
- Borussia Dortmund has had only 3 days to recover since their last match, which could be a disadvantage in terms of freshness
- Both teams have to replace key defenders: Dortmund is missing the suspended Ryerson, while Bayern is without Davies, Ito, and goalkeeper Neuer, among others
Overview
Top-of-the-table clash in the Bundesliga: Second-placed Borussia Dortmund (52 points) host leaders FC Bayern München (60 points) at Signal Iduna Park
Kick-off is on February 28, 2026, at 6:30 PM
For BVB, it's about closing the eight-point gap to stay in the title race
Form
Borussia Dortmund's form: WWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
BVB have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches, but their recent form has been trending downwards
FC Bayern München's form: WDWWW
Bayern are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 wins, 1 draw) and travel to Dortmund on the back of 3 consecutive wins
Statistics
Bayern's outstanding attack (avg. 3.7 goals per game) meets Dortmund's strong offense (avg. 2.14 goals)
Defensively, both teams are statistically identical with only 0.91 goals conceded per game
At home, BVB is a force, conceding an average of just 0.67 goals
Remarkably, all 23 of FC Bayern's league games this season have seen over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
FC Bayern has had the upper hand in the last 5 direct encounters
The team from Munich won 2 matches, Dortmund won once, and 2 games ended in a draw
The goal difference is 9-6 in favor of FC Bayern
Bayern won the last meeting 2-1
Key Players
For Dortmund, key players include Serhou Guirassy (11 season goals, 2 assists), Julian Brandt (6 goals, 2 assists), and Felix Nmecha (2 goals, 3 assists)
Bayern's attack is led by Harry Kane (28 season goals, 5 assists), Michael Olise (10 goals, 16 assists), and Luis Díaz (13 goals, 10 assists)
Goalkeepers
In goal for BVB is Gregor Kobel, who has kept 11 clean sheets this season
Jonas Urbig will be between the posts for Bayern, as Manuel Neuer is out with an injury
The Bayern team has a total of 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
Signal Iduna Park is a fortress for Borussia Dortmund
The team concedes an average of just 0.67 goals per game at home
The last 5 home games have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.6 goals per match