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Bundesliga

Eintracht Frankfurt - SC Freiburg

03/01/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.4
Total xG
2.3
SC Freiburg
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
EFSF

Eintracht Frankfurt

Defensive strength (2.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.58
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.50
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.14
Can Uzun not in starting XI (6 goals, 5 assists)
Jonathan Burkardt not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Farès Chaïbi not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Ansgar Knauff not in starting XI (4 goals, 1 assists)
65% of goal output missing (only 34% available)

SC Freiburg

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.84
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.29
Johan Manzambi not in starting XI (3 goals, 2 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Massively weakened Frankfurt offense: Only 35% of their goal-scoring threat is available, with key players like Can Uzun and Jonathan Burkardt missing
  • Clear matchup imbalance: Frankfurt's stable home offense (2.0 goals/game) meets Freiburg's very poor away defense (2.78 goals conceded/game)
  • Historical superiority: Frankfurt is unbeaten in the last five encounters against Freiburg (2 wins, 3 draws)
Risk Factors
  • Muted Freiburg offense: The visitors are also weakened by absences, with only 59% of their goal threat available, missing the suspended Johan Manzambi among others
  • Current attacking slump: Both teams are currently scoring significantly fewer goals than their season average, with Freiburg recently averaging only 0.6 goals per game
  • Freiburg's counter-tactics: The visitors could challenge Frankfurt's vulnerable defense (2.13 goals conceded/game) with their counter-attacking style (35% possession)
Overview

Eintracht Frankfurt (8th place, 31 points) host SC Freiburg (7th place, 33 points)

A direct duel in the Bundesliga mid-table at Deutsche Bank Park

The match takes place on March 1, 2026, 5:30 PM

Both teams aim to position themselves in the race for European spots with a win

Form

Eintracht Frankfurt form: LLDWL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in the last 5 games)

SC Freiburg form: LLWLW (2 wins, 3 losses in the last 5 games)

Both teams show mixed form without a clear trend

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Frankfurt's home offense is solid, averaging 2.0 goals per game

Freiburg's defense is very vulnerable away from home, conceding 2.78 goals per game

Both teams scored in 17 of Eintracht's 23 matches

Freiburg failed to score in 6 of their 23 league games this season

Head-to-Head

Eintracht Frankfurt is unbeaten in the last 5 direct duels

The record is 2 wins for Frankfurt and 3 draws

The goal difference also favors Eintracht with 12:7

The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

Eintracht Frankfurt: Ritsu Doan (4 goals, 5 assists), Nathaniel Brown (3 goals, 5 assists), Arnaud Kalimuendo (3 goals, 1 assist)

SC Freiburg: Igor Matanovic (6 goals, 1 assist), Vincenzo Grifo (6 goals, 1 assist), Yuito Suzuki (3 goals, 3 assists)

Goalkeepers

Kauã Santos is in goal for Frankfurt

For Freiburg, it's Noah Atubolu, who has kept 5 clean sheets this season

The entire Eintracht Frankfurt team has managed 4 clean sheets in total

Influences

Deutsche Bank Park has recently been the scene of high-scoring games (average of 3.8 goals in the last 5 matches)

Freiburg's glaring defensive weakness away from home (2.78 goals conceded) could be a decisive advantage for Frankfurt

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of Frankfurt's last 5 home games

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