Bundesliga
Eintracht Frankfurt - SC Freiburg
03/01/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.3
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Eintracht Frankfurt
SC Freiburg
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
30%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Massively weakened Frankfurt offense: Only 35% of their goal-scoring threat is available, with key players like Can Uzun and Jonathan Burkardt missing
- Clear matchup imbalance: Frankfurt's stable home offense (2.0 goals/game) meets Freiburg's very poor away defense (2.78 goals conceded/game)
- Historical superiority: Frankfurt is unbeaten in the last five encounters against Freiburg (2 wins, 3 draws)
Risk Factors
- Muted Freiburg offense: The visitors are also weakened by absences, with only 59% of their goal threat available, missing the suspended Johan Manzambi among others
- Current attacking slump: Both teams are currently scoring significantly fewer goals than their season average, with Freiburg recently averaging only 0.6 goals per game
- Freiburg's counter-tactics: The visitors could challenge Frankfurt's vulnerable defense (2.13 goals conceded/game) with their counter-attacking style (35% possession)
Overview
Eintracht Frankfurt (8th place, 31 points) host SC Freiburg (7th place, 33 points)
A direct duel in the Bundesliga mid-table at Deutsche Bank Park
The match takes place on March 1, 2026, 5:30 PM
Both teams aim to position themselves in the race for European spots with a win
Form
Eintracht Frankfurt form: LLDWL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in the last 5 games)
SC Freiburg form: LLWLW (2 wins, 3 losses in the last 5 games)
Both teams show mixed form without a clear trend
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Frankfurt's home offense is solid, averaging 2.0 goals per game
Freiburg's defense is very vulnerable away from home, conceding 2.78 goals per game
Both teams scored in 17 of Eintracht's 23 matches
Freiburg failed to score in 6 of their 23 league games this season
Head-to-Head
Eintracht Frankfurt is unbeaten in the last 5 direct duels
The record is 2 wins for Frankfurt and 3 draws
The goal difference also favors Eintracht with 12:7
The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw
Key Players
Eintracht Frankfurt: Ritsu Doan (4 goals, 5 assists), Nathaniel Brown (3 goals, 5 assists), Arnaud Kalimuendo (3 goals, 1 assist)
SC Freiburg: Igor Matanovic (6 goals, 1 assist), Vincenzo Grifo (6 goals, 1 assist), Yuito Suzuki (3 goals, 3 assists)
Goalkeepers
Kauã Santos is in goal for Frankfurt
For Freiburg, it's Noah Atubolu, who has kept 5 clean sheets this season
The entire Eintracht Frankfurt team has managed 4 clean sheets in total
Influences
Deutsche Bank Park has recently been the scene of high-scoring games (average of 3.8 goals in the last 5 matches)
Freiburg's glaring defensive weakness away from home (2.78 goals conceded) could be a decisive advantage for Frankfurt
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of Frankfurt's last 5 home games