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Bundesliga

RB Leipzig - FC Augsburg

03/07/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
RB Leipzig
2.4
Total xG
4.1
FC Augsburg
1.6
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

2:2

7%

3:1

7%

1:2

6%

3:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RLFA

RB Leipzig

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+1.04
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Xaver Schlager not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (2.5 vs 2 goals/match)

FC Augsburg

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Alexis Claude-Maurice on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists)
Michael Gregoritsch on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 86% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

21%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

92%

Under 1.5

8%

Over 2.5

77%

Under 2.5

23%

Over 3.5

58%

Under 3.5

42%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

74%

No

26%

Key Factors
  • Leipzig's Home Strength: The mathematical model predicts a home win with 54% probability and 2.41 expected home goals against a weak away defense
  • Historical Dominance: RB Leipzig boasts an impressive record of 3 wins and 2 draws in 5 direct encounters, with a goal difference of 15:2
  • Augsburg's Current Form: Despite the challenges, FC Augsburg shows positive form with 4 wins from their last 5 games, including a current streak of 3 wins
Risk Factors
  • Augsburg's Vulnerable Away Defense: FC Augsburg concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away game
  • Leipzig's Recent Home Draws: RB Leipzig has drawn their last two home games, both with a 2-2 scoreline
Overview

RB Leipzig (5th place, 44 points) host FC Augsburg (9th place, 31 points) at the Red Bull Arena

Bundesliga match on March 7, 2026, 3:30 PM

Leipzig is fighting for Champions League spots, while Augsburg is in the mid-table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

RB Leipzig's form in the last five games is LWDDW

This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with the last game being a win

FC Augsburg's form in the last five matches is WLWWW

This includes 4 wins and 1 loss, with a current streak of 3 consecutive wins

Statistics

RB Leipzig has scored an average of 1.92 goals per game this season and conceded 1.38 goals

They have also kept 9 clean sheets and both teams scored in 14 matches

At home, RB Leipzig averages 1.93 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded

FC Augsburg has scored an average of 1.25 goals per game this season and conceded 1.71 goals

They have kept 5 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 13 matches

Away from home, FC Augsburg averages 1.3 goals scored and 2.2 goals conceded

The Red Bull Arena has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches between RB Leipzig and FC Augsburg, RB Leipzig has secured 3 wins

FC Augsburg has not won any of these encounters, with 2 matches ending in a draw

RB Leipzig scored a total of 15 goals, while FC Augsburg scored 2 goals

The last encounter on October 25, 2025, ended in a 6-0 victory for RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig has been dominant in recent direct clashes

Key Players

For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner (10 goals, 7 assists, Avg 7.2) with rising form (2 goals in 90 minutes of last 5 games, Avg 9.07), Yan Diomande (9 goals, 5 assists, Avg 7.35) and Rômulo (7 goals, 5 assists, Avg 7.06) are significant

For FC Augsburg, Dimitrios Giannoulis (2 goals, 3 assists, Avg 6.96) with rising form (1 assist in 90 minutes of last 5 games, Avg 7.53), Han-Noah Massengo (2 goals, 1 assist, Avg 6.81) with rising form (Avg 7.17 of last 5 games) and Arthur Chaves (1 goal, 0 assists, Avg 7.21) with stable form (1 goal in 221 minutes of last 5 games, Avg 7.21) are noteworthy

Goalkeepers

For RB Leipzig, Maarten Vandevoordt is expected to be in goal, who has not recorded any clean sheets in 3 season appearances

For FC Augsburg, Finn Dahmen is the listed goalkeeper, who kept 5 clean sheets in 24 season appearances

Influences

The Red Bull Arena is a venue with an average of 2.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in 60% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%

RB Leipzig averages 1.93 home goals scored and 1.21 home goals conceded

FC Augsburg concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away game

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