Bundesliga
VfL Wolfsburg - Hamburger SV
03/07/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.8
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
VfL Wolfsburg
Hamburger SV
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Hamburger SV with 41% probability, while VfL Wolfsburg's home win probability is 30%
- VfL Wolfsburg's current form is negative with 0 wins in 5 games, while Hamburger SV has achieved 2 wins in their last 5 games
- The Volkswagen Arena is known for many goals (avg. 4.0 goals per game), combined with HSV's high away goals conceded rate (3.17 goals) and Wolfsburg's home goals conceded rate (1.86 goals)
Risk Factors
- Hamburger SV has only 3 days of recovery time after their last match
- VfL Wolfsburg's goal production is currently stagnant with 1.0 goals per game, while the season average is 1.4 goals
- The home team VfL Wolfsburg concedes an average of 1.86 goals per home game
Overview
VfL Wolfsburg (17th place, 20 points) host Hamburger SV (11th place, 26 points) at the Volkswagen Arena. The Bundesliga match takes place on March 7, 2026, 3:30 PM. Wolfsburg is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Hamburg aims to consolidate their mid-table position
Form
Home team VfL Wolfsburg is in a difficult phase with form LLDLL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) from the last five games and two consecutive losses. Goal production is currently stagnant (1.0 goals), while the season average is 1.4 goals. Hamburger SV shows form WWDLL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) and also has two consecutive losses. The team scores consistently with about 1.4 goals per game
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
VfL Wolfsburg scores an average of 1.38 goals and concedes 2.21 goals per season. In home games, the average is 1.36 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded. Wolfsburg has only achieved 1 clean sheet so far, none at home. Both teams scored in 18 of 24 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 matches. Hamburger SV scores an average of 1.08 goals and concedes 1.46 goals per game. Away, the average is 1.17 goals scored and a high 3.17 goals conceded. Hamburg has achieved 6 clean sheets, 4 of them away. In the Volkswagen Arena, an average of 4.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches, and both teams scored in all 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the previous 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for each team and 1 draw. The goal difference is slightly in favor of Hamburger SV at 4:5. VfL Wolfsburg won the last encounter in October 2025 with a score of 1:0. The historical record is even
Key Players
For VfL Wolfsburg, Mohamed Amoura (8 goals, 3 assists) shows a declining form. Christian Eriksen (1 goal, 5 assists) and Dzenan Pejcinovic (5 goals) maintain stable form. Lovro Majer (2 goals, 3 assists) and Maximilian Arnold (1 goal, 4 assists) are not in the lineup, which reduces the usual starting eleven's strength by 5% of goal threat and 19% of assists. For Hamburger SV, Fábio Vieira (4 goals, 4 assists) and Ransford Königsdörffer (4 goals, 2 assists, 3 goals in last 5 games) show a rising form trend. Nicolás Capaldo (1 goal, 1 assist) is not in the lineup. Luka Vuskovic (4 goals) and Albert Sambi Lokonga (4 goals) maintain stable form
Goalkeepers
VfL Wolfsburg's goalkeeper, Kamil Grabara, has achieved 1 clean sheet this season. Hamburger SV's goalkeeper, Daniel Heuer Fernandes, has recorded 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
VfL Wolfsburg has scored an average of 1.36 goals and conceded 1.86 goals in home games. The Volkswagen Arena is known for many goals with an average of 4.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in all 5 of the last home matches