Bundesliga
FC Köln - Borussia Dortmund
03/07/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.7
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
FC Köln
Borussia Dortmund
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
29%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Borussia Dortmund enters the match with a predicted win probability of 39% compared to 33% for FC Köln
- Dortmund's offensive strength is evident with an average of 2.13 goals per game, while FC Köln scores 1.38 goals
- FC Köln's current goal production is declining (1.0 goals), contrasting with Dortmund's stable performance
Risk Factors
- FC Köln's offense shows low efficiency with only an average of 3.2 shots on target
- Borussia Dortmund recently recorded two consecutive losses
- The model predicts a 56% probability of both teams scoring, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities
Overview
FC Köln (13th place, 24 points) host Borussia Dortmund (2nd place, 52 points) at RheinEnergieStadion
Bundesliga match on March 7, 2026, 6:30 PM
Dortmund aims to keep pace with the league leaders, while Köln battles against relegation
Form
FC Köln's form over the last five games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is WLLDL with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Their last result was a 0-2 away loss against FC Augsburg
FC Köln is winless in one consecutive game
Borussia Dortmund's form over the last five games (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) is WWDLL with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Their last result was a 2-3 home loss against FC Bayern München
Borussia Dortmund has suffered two consecutive losses
Statistics
FC Köln scores an average of 1.38 goals per game and concedes 1.71 goals
At home, the average is 1.4 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded per home game
Borussia Dortmund scores an average of 2.13 goals per game and concedes 1.04 goals
Away, the average is 2.09 goals scored and 1.27 goals conceded per away game
FC Köln scored in 17 matches and kept 3 clean sheets
Borussia Dortmund scored in 13 matches and kept 11 clean sheets
An average of 3.0 goals per game were scored at RheinEnergieStadion in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, FC Köln secured 1 win, and Borussia Dortmund secured 4 wins
There have been 0 draws
The goal difference of 4:14 clearly favors Borussia Dortmund
The last encounter on October 25, 2025, ended in a 0-1 away win for Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund has dominated the recent direct clashes
Key Players
For FC Köln, Said El Mala is an important attacker with 8 goals and 4 assists this season
Ragnar Ache has contributed 5 goals and 3 assists and shows a rising form trend with 1 goal in the last 5 games
Jakub Kamiński has scored 5 goals and 2 assists this season, but his form is declining
For Borussia Dortmund, Julian Ryerson stands out with 11 season assists, including 4 in the last 5 games with a rising form
Maximilian Beier is an important attacker with 7 goals and 3 assists and shows a rising form trend with 1 goal in the last 5 games
Julian Brandt has scored 6 goals and 2 assists this season, but his form is declining
Goalkeepers
Marvin Schwäbe is FC Köln's goalkeeper and has recorded 3 clean sheets this season
Gregor Kobel is Borussia Dortmund's goalkeeper and has recorded 11 clean sheets this season
Gregor Kobel has kept 4 clean sheets in away games, while Marvin Schwäbe has 1 in home games
Influences
FC Köln scored 21 goals at home and conceded 19 goals
Borussia Dortmund scored 23 goals away and conceded 14 goals
The RheinEnergieStadion has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last five matches
In 4 out of 5 games both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored