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Bundesliga

Heidenheim - TSG Hoffenheim

03/07/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 4
Expected Goals
Heidenheim
1.4
Total xG
3.3
TSG Hoffenheim
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
HEITH

Heidenheim

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.45
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 3, 15 places gap)
-0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.02
Arijon Ibrahimovic not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Julian Niehues on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Eren Dinkçi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Marnon Busch on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 54% available)
Strong home record (1.3 vs 0.9 goals/match)

TSG Hoffenheim

Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 18, 15 places gap)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Grischa Prömel on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 94% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

25%

Away Win

49%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

64%

Under 2.5

36%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

51%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • Squad Impact: Only 54% of Heidenheim's scoring threat is available, without Arijon Ibrahimovic, Julian Niehues, Eren Dinkçil, Marnon Busch
  • Class Difference: TSG Hoffenheim is significantly better placed in the league (3rd place) than Heidenheim (18th place)
  • Offensive Strength: TSG Hoffenheim with 1.91 predicted goals is significantly more dangerous than Heidenheim with 1.37
Risk Factors
  • Heidenheim averages only 3.0 shots on target per game, indicating low offensive threat
  • TSG Hoffenheim's current goal production is slowing with 1.8 goals per game, while their season average is 2.1
Overview

Heidenheim (18th place, 14 points) hosts TSG Hoffenheim (3rd place, 46 points) at the Voith-Arena. The Bundesliga match takes place on March 7, 2026, 3:30 PM. While TSG is fighting for Champions League spots, Heidenheim is deep in the relegation battle.

Form

Heidenheim is in a difficult phase with a form of LLLDL across all competitions. The team recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 games. TSG Hoffenheim shows a form of WLWDL, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. The last game for both teams resulted in a loss.

Statistics

Heidenheim scores an average of 0.92 goals per game and concedes 2.21 goals. At home, they score 0.93 goals and concede 1.93 goals per home match. The team kept no clean sheets this season. TSG Hoffenheim shows a significantly stronger offense with an average of 2.04 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per game. Away, they score an average of 2.0 times and concede 1.55 goals. Hoffenheim kept a clean sheet in 6 games. At the Voith-Arena, an average of 3.8 goals are scored per game. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the 5 direct encounters so far, Heidenheim has not managed a single win. TSG Hoffenheim won 2 matches and 3 games ended in a draw. The goal difference is 5:8 in favor of Hoffenheim. The last encounter on October 25, 2025, saw TSG Hoffenheim win away with a score of 3:1.

Key Players

For Heidenheim, Budu Zivzivadze, Niklas Dorsch, and Patrick Mainka are important players. Budu Zivzivadze scored 1 season goal and showed stable form in the last 5 games with 1 goal. Niklas Dorsch has a rising form trend. Patrick Mainka scored 1 season goal and 1 assist. For TSG Hoffenheim, Andrej Kramaric stands out with 10 season goals and 4 assists, scoring 4 goals in the last 5 games and showing rising form. Fisnik Asllani (7 goals, 5 assists) scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists in the last 5 games with rising form. Wouter Burger (4 goals, 6 assists) set up 2 goals in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Heidenheim is expected to start with goalkeeper Diant Ramaj. Heidenheim has kept 0 clean sheets this season. For TSG Hoffenheim, Oliver Baumann is in goal. Hoffenheim has recorded 6 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Heidenheim scores an average of 0.93 goals at home and concedes 1.93 goals. The Voith-Arena is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of these matches.

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