Liga Portugal
Sporting Braga - Vitória Guimarães
02/21/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
30%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Massive home advantage for Braga: The home team scores an average of 2.0 goals per game and faces a weak away defense from Guimarães (2.29 goals conceded per game)
- Offense in top form: Braga's attack has improved immensely, currently scoring 3.3 goals per game according to advanced stats, almost double their season average (1.9)
- In-form key players: Ricardo Horta and Pau Vítor are in outstanding shape, having been directly involved in 14 goals in the last five games (8 goals, 6 assists)
Risk Factors
- Balanced H2H record: Recent encounters have been very close, with three of the last five matches ending in a draw, which could suggest a tighter result
- Moderate win probability: The calculated win probability for Braga is 49%, which, while indicating they are favorites, leaves room for other outcomes, especially a draw (30%)
- Recent dip in form: Braga lost their last match, ending a four-game unbeaten streak, which could affect their momentum
Overview
Sporting Braga (5th place, 39 points) host Vitória Guimarães (8th place, 31 points) at the Estádio Municipal de Braga
The Liga Portugal match takes place on February 21, 2026, at 8:30 PM
Braga aims to solidify their position for the European spots, while Guimarães wants to stay in touch with the top half of the table
Form
Sporting Braga form: WDWWL
In the last five matches, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Vitória Guimarães form: LLWLW
The visitors have 2 wins and 3 losses from their last five games
Braga shows better overall form despite their recent loss
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sporting Braga is extremely strong at home, scoring an average of 2,0 goals per home game while conceding only 0,64
Vitória Guimarães is defensively vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2,29 goals
Braga's offense has significantly improved recently, scoring 3,3 goals per game in recent form, compared to their season average of 1,9
Head-to-Head
The record of the last five direct encounters is completely balanced
Both teams have won once each, while three matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is very tight at 6:5 in favor of Vitória Guimarães
The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
Ricardo Horta is in outstanding form with 11 goals and 3 assists, including 5 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 games
Rodrigo Zalazar is a constant threat in midfield with 9 season goals
Pau Vítor shows a strong rise in form with 3 goals and 3 assists in the most recent 5 matches
Samu is a key player with 3 season goals and 2 assists
Nélson Oliveira has also scored 3 goals
Noah Jose Saviolo has 2 goals and 2 assists to his name
Goalkeepers
Lukas Hornicek in goal for Sporting Braga has been involved in 9 clean sheets this season
The Vitória Guimarães team, with goalkeeper Charles, has achieved 7 clean sheets
Influences
Sporting Braga enjoys a clear home advantage
At the Estádio Municipal de Braga, recent matches have seen an average of 2,8 goals, with Braga conceding only 7 goals in 11 home games
The home team has won five of their last home games, keeping a clean sheet in four of them