Liga Portugal
Estrela Amadora - Tondela
02/20/2026, 08:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.3
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
11%0:1
10%1:0
9%1:2
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
31%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Critical personnel situation for Estrela Amadora: Only 54% of the seasonal goal threat is available, significantly weakening the attack
- Tondela's weak attack: With only 0.67 goals per away game and an average of just 2.4 shots on target, they lack firepower
- Vulnerable defenses on both sides: Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 1.77 goals and Tondela 1.83 goals per away game, which could point to goals from both teams
Risk Factors
- Tondela's offensive power is also reduced, with only 60% of the season's goal threat available
- The mathematical forecast is very balanced, giving Tondela a slight edge as favorites (37% win probability), making the outcome unpredictable
- Estrela Amadora's goal production has recently plummeted, with 0.6 goals in recent games being well below the season average of 1.4
Overview
Estrela Amadora (11th place, 23 points) hosts Tondela (17th place, 15 points) at Estádio José Gomes
This is a crucial match in the Liga Portugal relegation battle
The game takes place on February 20, 2026, at 9:45 PM
Form
Estrela Amadora's current form: LLDWL
In the last 5 games, they have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Tondela's current form: LLDDD
In the last 5 games, they have 3 draws and 2 losses, the team is unbeaten in 3 games (3 draws)
Statistics
Estrela Amadora scores an average of 1.18 goals per game, while Tondela only manages 0.68
Both defenses are vulnerable: Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 1.77 goals, Tondela 1.64
Tondela's defense is particularly weak away, conceding 1.83 goals per game
In Estrela Amadora's last five home matches, the average total goals was 3.2
Head-to-Head
There has only been one head-to-head match between the two teams so far
This game ended in a 0-0 draw
Therefore, there is no clear historical dominance by either team
Key Players
Jovane Cabral has scored 4 goals for Estrela Amadora this season
Abraham Marcus is a key offensive player with 3 goals and 3 assists
Paulo Moreira has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist from midfield
Maranhão is Tondela's top scorer with 5 goals this season
Brayan Medina is a key player in defense and has contributed 1 assist
Makan Aïko is in rising form and has already provided 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Estrela Amadora's Renan Ribeiro has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Bernardo, Tondela's goalkeeper, has managed 3 clean sheets
Influences
Estrela Amadora has a slight home advantage but concedes an average of 1.42 goals at home
Tondela is very vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.83 goals
Recent games at Estádio José Gomes have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game