Liga Portugal
Alverca - Santa Clara
02/21/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
31%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Drastic form disparity: Alverca is inconsistent, but Santa Clara has lost their last 5 consecutive matches
- Santa Clara's offensive weakness: The team scores only 0.78 goals per away game and has failed to score in 10 season matches
- Slight home advantage for Alverca: The mathematical analysis slightly favors Alverca with a 39% win probability
Risk Factors
- Low goal threat for Alverca: Only 64% of the seasonal goal threat is available in the starting lineup
- Lack of attacking power from both teams: Both teams have a low average number of shots on target (Alverca 2.6, Santa Clara 2.4), suggesting a low-scoring game
Overview
Alverca (10th place, 25 points) hosts Santa Clara (17th place, 17 points) at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
This is a Liga Portugal match on February 21, 2026, 4:30 PM
A clash between a mid-table team and a relegation candidate
Form
Alverca's form in the last 5 games: W-L-D-L-D
The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Santa Clara's form in the last 5 games: L-L-L-L-L
Santa Clara is in a crisis with 5 consecutive losses
Statistics
Alverca scores an average of 1.0 goals per game this season and concedes 1.68
Santa Clara has a weaker offense, averaging 0.77 goals per game while conceding 1.27
Alverca's matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 12 of 22 games
Santa Clara has failed to score in 10 of their 22 season matches
Head-to-Head
There has only been one head-to-head match between the two teams so far
Santa Clara won that game 2-1
Due to the limited data, this single comparison has little significance
Key Players
For Alverca, Marko Milovanović with 6 season goals and Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos with 3 assists are key players
Figueiredo has also contributed 2 goals
For Santa Clara, Vinícius Lopes with 5 goals and Serginho with 3 goals and 2 assists are the most dangerous offensive players
Gabriel Silva has also scored 2 goals this season
Goalkeepers
In goal for Alverca is André Nogueira Gomes
His team has kept 5 clean sheets this season
For Santa Clara, Gabriel Batista is the goalkeeper
His team also has 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Matches at the Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca tend to be low-scoring, with an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in only 2 of these 5 home games
Alverca has a home record of 10 goals scored and 15 conceded in 10 games
Santa Clara is vulnerable away, having conceded 14 goals in 9 games