Liga Portugal
Arouca - Nacional
02/21/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.2
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
13%0:1
11%1:0
11%1:2
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
33%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Defensive Frailty: Arouca's defense, conceding 2.23 goals per game, is their biggest weakness and a critical factor in this matchup
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Arouca is unbeaten in the last 5 encounters against Nacional (4 wins, 1 draw), which could provide a psychological edge
- Striker Form in Focus: Arouca's striker IvĂ n Barbero is in top form with 5 goals in his last 5 games, while Nacional's top scorer JesĂșs RamĂrez has only scored once in the same period
Risk Factors
- Key Absence for Nacional: Midfielder I. Liziero Pereira (4 season assists) is missing due to suspension, which could impact their creative play
- Arouca's Weak Home Defense: Conceding an average of 2.09 goals per home game, Arouca's defense remains a constant risk for their own team
Overview
Arouca (12th place, 23 points) hosts Nacional (14th place, 21 points) at the EstĂĄdio Municipal de Arouca
This is a crucial relegation battle in the Liga Portugal on February 21, 2026, 4:30 PM
The mathematical analysis suggests an extremely balanced match, with a 33% probability of a win for Arouca, 33% for a draw, and 34% for Nacional
Form
Arouca's form from the last 5 matches: WLWWL
The team has achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in this period
Nacional's form from the last 5 matches: LWLDL
They managed to win only 1 match, with 1 draw and 3 losses
Arouca enters the game with significantly better form
Statistics
Both attacking lines are statistically on par, with Arouca scoring an average of 1.27 goals per game, and Nacional 1.23
The key difference lies in the defense: Arouca concedes an average of 2.23 goals, while Nacional concedes only 1.41
Arouca's defense is particularly vulnerable at home, letting in 2.09 goals per game
The last 5 matches at the EstĂĄdio Municipal de Arouca were high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals per game
Head-to-Head
Arouca has clearly dominated the last 5 head-to-head encounters
They won 4 matches, while 1 game ended in a draw, and Nacional could not win any
The goal difference is 8:3 in favor of Arouca
The last meeting was also won by Arouca with a score of 2-1
Key Players
For Arouca, IvĂ n Barbero stands out with 5 goals in the last 5 games, flanked by Alfonso Trezza (7 season goals, 3 assists) and NaĂŻfs Djouahra (5 goals, 2 assists)
Nacional's offense is led by top scorer JesĂșs RamĂrez (13 season goals)
Support comes from the goal-scoring defenders Ze Vitor (4 goals) and LĂ©o Santos (3 goals)
Goalkeepers
In goal for Arouca is Ignacio de Arruabarrena
Kaique will be the goalkeeper for Nacional
Both teams have kept 4 clean sheets so far this season
Influences
Statistically, Arouca does not have a strong home advantage, mainly due to their vulnerable defense conceding 2.09 goals per home game
The stadium has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five matches
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of these games