Liga Portugal
Famalicão - Casa Pia
02/23/2026, 08:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.0
0.8
0:0
15%1:1
15%1:0
14%2:0
10%0:1
9%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
33%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- Offensive weakening for Casa Pia: With Gaizka Larrazabal and Cassiano, key attackers are missing, leaving only 44% of the usual goal threat available
- Home strength meets away weakness: Famalicão's extremely strong home defense (0.6 goals conceded/game) faces Casa Pia's very vulnerable away defense (2.22 goals conceded/game)
- Clear favorite according to the model: The mathematical analysis favors Famalicão with a 45% win probability, almost double that of Casa Pia (23%)
Risk Factors
- Casa Pia's positive form: Despite their league position, Casa Pia is unbeaten in their last four games, including a victory over league leaders Porto
- Low shot volume: Both teams average only 2.8 shots on target per game, which could lead to a lower-scoring match than anticipated
Overview
Famalicão (8th place, 32 points) hosts Casa Pia (13th place, 22 points) at the Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
The Liga Portugal match takes place on February 23, 2026, at 8:15 PM
Famalicão aims to solidify their position in the top half of the table, while Casa Pia looks to distance themselves from the relegation zone
Form
Famalicão form (all competitions): WWLWL
In the last 5 matches, there have been 3 wins and 2 losses
Casa Pia form (all competitions): LDWDW
Casa Pia has achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and suffered only 1 defeat
The team is unbeaten in their last four matches
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Famalicão scores an average of 1.23 goals per game and concedes 0.95
At home, they are defensively very strong, conceding only 0.6 goals per game
Casa Pia has a scoring average of 1.14 and concedes an average of 1.86 goals
Away from home, Casa Pia's defense is particularly vulnerable, with 2.22 goals conceded per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Famalicão has the edge with 2 wins, while Casa Pia won once, and 2 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is 7:5 in favor of Famalicão
The last meeting ended in a 1:1 draw
Key Players
Gustavo Sá (4 goals, 1 assist) and Gil Dias (3 goals, 4 assists) are key figures in Famalicão's offense
For Casa Pia, Jérémy Livolant stands out with 3 goals and 7 assists as the top provider
Goalkeepers
Famalicão's goalkeeper Lazar Carević has kept 10 clean sheets this season
Patrick Sequeira of Casa Pia has kept a clean sheet 4 times so far
Influences
Famalicão has a clear home advantage, especially defensively, where they concede an average of only 0.6 goals per game
The last five matches at this stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals per game and all five going over 2.5 goals