Liga Portugal
Gil Vicente - Benfica
03/02/2026, 08:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.3
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
11%1:0
9%1:2
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
32%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Historical Dominance: Benfica has won all of the last five head-to-head matches against Gil Vicente
- Clash of Styles: Benfica's strong away attack (2.1 goals per game) meets Gil Vicente's extremely solid home defense (0.62 goals conceded per game)
- Balanced Prediction: The mathematical analysis suggests a close game, with a slight edge for Benfica (39% win probability), but also a high chance of a draw (32%)
Risk Factors
- Stuttering Benfica attack: Benfica's goal scoring has recently dropped, with 1.6 goals per game below their season average of 1.9
- Inconsistent form: Both teams have lost two of their last five games, indicating some level of inconsistency
- Defensive vulnerability for Gil Vicente: The home team has recently conceded more goals (1.6 on average) than their season average (1.0)
Overview
Top clash in the Liga Portugal on March 2, 2026, 9:15 PM
Gil Vicente, currently in 5th place with 40 points, hosts third-placed Benfica with 55 points
The match will take place at the EstĂĄdio Cidade de Barcelos
Important points are at stake for both teams in the race for European spots
Form
Both teams show mixed form with 3 wins and 2 losses each in their last five games
Gil Vicente's form is LWWWL
Benfica's form is WWLWL
Both teams lost their last match before this encounter
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Benfica has one of the strongest attacks in the league, averaging 2.09 goals per game
Away from home, they are even more dangerous with 2.1 goals per game
Gil Vicente, on the other hand, shines with a strong home defense, conceding only 0.62 goals per game in their own stadium
Benfica is the best defensive team overall with just 0.59 goals conceded per game
Head-to-Head
The historical record of the last five meetings clearly favors Benfica
The visitors have won all five matches
The goal difference from these games is 16:4 in favor of Benfica
The last duel ended in a 2-1 victory for Benfica
Key Players
For the home team, Santiago GarcĂa GonzĂĄlez with 5 goals and 1 assist, and Murilo de Souza Costa with 6 goals and 4 assists are the key offensive players
For the visitors, Vangelis Pavlidis is the outstanding striker with 20 goals this season
He is supported by midfielder Fredrik Aursnes, who has contributed 3 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
In goal for Gil Vicente is LucĂŁo, whose team has kept 10 clean sheets this season
For Benfica, Anatoliy Trubin is the goalkeeper; he has managed to keep a clean sheet with his team 11 times
Influences
The EstĂĄdio Cidade de Barcelos has recently hosted high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five home matches
Gil Vicente's home strength is remarkable, especially their defense, which concedes only 0.62 goals per game
Benfica's strong away attack will put this defense to the test