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Bundesliga

FC Bayern München - Borussia Mönchengladbach

03/06/2026, 07:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Bayern München
2.8
Total xG
3.6
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0.9
Most Likely Scores

3:0

9%

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

4:0

6%

4:1

6%
What influences the xG?
FBMBM

FC Bayern München

Attack strength (2x league average)
+1.25
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap)
+0.14
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
-0.07
Harry Kane not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Michael Olise not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Serge Gnabry not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Josip Stanisic not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Jonathan Tah not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Aleksandar Pavlovic not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 50% available)

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.68
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap)
-0.11
Yannik Engelhardt not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

76%

Draw

16%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

88%

Under 1.5

12%

Over 2.5

70%

Under 2.5

30%

Over 3.5

49%

Under 3.5

51%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

24%

No Draw

84%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact: Only 50% of the usual starting eleven's goal threat for FC Bayern München, without Harry Kane (30G/5A), Michael Olise (10G/16A) and other players
  • Dominant home form and offensive power: FC Bayern München is unbeaten in four games and averages 3.69 home goals per match
  • Historical superiority and league position: FC Bayern München won all 5 head-to-head matches and is top of the table, while Gladbach is in 12th place
Risk Factors
  • The pipeline analysis predicts a 55% probability for both teams to score
  • FC Bayern München recently conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game, compared to their season average of 0.97
Overview

FC Bayern München (1st place, 63 points) host Borussia Mönchengladbach (12th place, 25 points) at the Allianz Arena. The Bundesliga match takes place on March 6, 2026, at 8:30 PM. The pipeline analysis sees FC Bayern as clear favorites with a home win probability of 76%, with an expected 2.75 home goals

Form

FC Bayern München shows strong form (DWWWW), with four wins and one draw in their last five games. Their last four matches were all wins, most recently a 3-2 against Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Mönchengladbach's form is mixed (DDLLW), with one win, two draws, and two losses. Their last game was a 1-0 win against Union Berlin. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Bayern München shines this season with an average of 3.67 goals scored and only 0.96 goals conceded per game. In home games, the average is even higher at 3.69 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded. Borussia Mönchengladbach averages 1.13 goals scored and 1.63 goals conceded per game. Away, their average is 1.08 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded. Over 2.5 goals were scored in all 24 FC Bayern games and in 13 Borussia Mönchengladbach games. The venue has seen an average of 5.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 80% of matches

Head-to-Head

In the last five direct encounters, FC Bayern München dominated. All five matches ended in a victory for Bayern, who scored 11 goals and conceded only 2. The last meeting on October 25, 2025, saw FC Bayern win 3-0 against Borussia Mönchengladbach

Key Players

For FC Bayern München, Luis Díaz is a crucial attacking player with 13 season goals and 10 assists, contributing 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 3 games. Joshua Kimmich is an important midfield engine with 2 goals and 6 assists this season, and 1 assist in his last 3 games. Lennart Karl has 4 season goals and 2 assists, and assisted 1 goal in his last 4 games. For Borussia Mönchengladbach, Haris Tabakovic is the top scorer with 11 season goals and 2 assists, scoring 1 goal in his last 3 games. Franck Honorat contributed 5 assists this season and one more in his last 3 games. Defender Kevin Diks scored 4 season goals

Goalkeepers

Manuel Neuer for FC Bayern München played in 18 season games. Moritz Nicolas for Borussia Mönchengladbach played all 24 season games. Both teams achieved 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Allianz Arena is characterized by high-scoring games, with an average of 5.0 goals per game, 80% both teams scoring, and 80% of games exceeding 2.5 goals. FC Bayern München is particularly strong at home, scoring an average of 3.69 goals and conceding only 0.92 goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach averages 1.08 goals scored away and concedes 1.5 away goals

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