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Liga Portugal

Sporting CP - Estoril

02/27/2026, 08:45 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Sporting CP
1.8
Total xG
2.8
Estoril
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SCEST

Sporting CP

Defensive strength (concededAvg conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.80
Attack strength (1.33x league average)
+0.40
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.14

Estoril

Attack strength (1.41x league average)
-0.53
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average)
+0.18
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

26%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Home strength vs. away weakness: Sporting is a force at home (avg 2.54 goals), while Estoril's defense is very vulnerable away (avg 2.2 goals conceded)
  • Historical dominance: Sporting has won all of the last 5 encounters, with a goal difference of 13-2
  • Superior defense: Despite both teams having strong attacks, Sporting's rock-solid defense (only 0.31 goals conceded at home) is the decisive factor
Risk Factors
  • Estoril's dangerous attack: The visitors are currently scoring more goals (2.6 per game) than their season average (2.0) and could challenge Sporting's defense
  • Slight offensive dip for Sporting: The home team's goal production of 2.0 goals in recent games is slightly below their season average of 2.5
Overview

Sporting CP (2nd place, 58 points) hosts Estoril (7th place, 33 points) at the Estádio José Alvalade

Liga Portugal match on February 27, 2026, 9:45 PM

Sporting are clear favorites in the title race, while Estoril is fighting for an upper mid-table position

Form

Sporting CP form: WWDWW

In the last 5 games, Sporting has secured 4 wins and 1 draw, remaining unbeaten

The team is currently on a 2-game winning streak

Estoril form: WWDLW

Estoril has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The visitors' form is good, but less consistent than the home team's

Statistics

Sporting CP has one of the strongest attacks in the league, averaging 2.55 goals per game

Their defense is outstanding, especially at home with only 0.31 goals conceded per game

Estoril also has a strong offense with 2.0 goals per game, including away matches

However, Estoril's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per away game

In the last 5 home games at the Estádio José Alvalade, there has been an average of 2.8 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Sporting CP has won all 5 matches

The goal difference is 13-2 in favor of Sporting

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 victory for Sporting

Sporting CP shows clear historical dominance in this fixture

Key Players

Luis Suárez is Sporting's top scorer with 19 goals this season

Francisco Trincão has contributed 8 assists and is a key playmaker

Defender Maxi Araújo shows consistent performances and is also involved offensively

Yanis Begraoui is the main threat for Estoril with an impressive 17 goals this season

João Carvalho is the creative mind in midfield with 6 goals and 10 assists

Alejandro Marqués has proven his goal-scoring ability in recent matches

Goalkeepers

Sporting's goalkeeper Rui Silva has kept 11 clean sheets this season

Estoril's goalkeeper Joel Robles has achieved 3 clean sheets

Statistically, Rui Silva, supported by a strong defense, has significantly better figures

Influences

Sporting CP has a massive home advantage, with 33 goals scored and only 4 conceded in 13 home games

The Estádio José Alvalade has recently been a high-scoring venue, with 4 of the last 5 games having over 2.5 goals

Both teams are used to the grass surface, which provides no particular advantage

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