Liga Portugal
AVS - Estrela Amadora
02/28/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.1
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
12%0:1
11%2:0
7%What influences the xG?
AVS
Estrela Amadora
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
34%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
35%
Under 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Weakened offense for Estrela Amadora: Only 54% of this season's goalscorers are available, significantly reducing their attacking power
- Clash of vulnerable defenses: AVS (avg 2.45 goals conceded) and Estrela Amadora (avg 1.78 goals conceded) have two of the weakest defenses in the league
- Contrasting attacking trends: AVS shows improved form in attack (avg 1.4 goals in recent games), while Estrela's offense has sharply declined (avg 0.6 goals)
Risk Factors
- Estrela Amadora's away weakness: The team concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game on the road
- Lack of goal threat: Both teams average only 2.8 shots on target, which could indicate a low number of clear-cut chances
Overview
In the Liga Portugal relegation battle, AVS (18th place, 8 points) hosts Estrela Amadora (12th place, 23 points)
The match takes place on February 28, 2026, at 4:30 PM at the Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves
This is a crucial game for bottom-of-the-table AVS to stay in contention
The mathematical analysis suggests a very open match, with a 36% probability for a home win, 34% for a draw, and 31% for an away win
Form
Current form AVS: DLLWL
In the last 5 games, there has been 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Their only victory was a convincing 3-0 home win against Estoril
Current form Estrela Amadora: LDWLL
Their record in the last 5 games is identical with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
They are currently on a two-game losing streak
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
AVS has one of the weakest attacks in the league with only 18 goals in 22 games (avg 0.82 per game)
Estrela Amadora is slightly more dangerous with 26 goals in 23 matches (avg 1.13)
Both defensive lines are very vulnerable: AVS concedes an average of 2.45 goals, while Estrela Amadora concedes 1.78
Estrela's defense is particularly challenged away from home, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game
Head-to-Head
The record is perfectly balanced in 3 previous head-to-head encounters
Both teams have won 1 match each, with 1 draw
The goal difference is 4-2 in favor of Estrela Amadora
The last meeting was a clear 3-0 victory for Estrela Amadora
Key Players
For AVS, Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete (3 season goals) and Tomané (2 goals, 1 assist) could pose a threat, supported by Babatunde Jimoh Akinsola (1 goal, 2 assists)
For Estrela Amadora, all eyes will be on Jovane Cabral (4 season goals)
Abraham Marcus (3 goals, 3 assists) and Paulo Moreira (3 goals) are also key offensive players
Goalkeepers
Adriel is in goal for AVS
The team has only managed one clean sheet this season
On the other side, Renan Ribeiro is the goalkeeper for Estrela Amadora
He and his team have already achieved 5 clean sheets
Influences
AVS has a poor record at home, but concedes slightly fewer goals (1.92 per game) than away (3.1)
The last 5 games at the Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves have averaged 2.8 goals
However, both teams scored in only one of these five matches
This suggests rather one-sided game outcomes