Liga Portugal
Casa Pia - Moreirense
03/01/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.0
0.9
0:0
16%1:1
15%1:0
13%0:1
12%2:0
7%What influences the xG?
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
35%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
60%
Under 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
31%
Under 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
14%
Under 3.5
86%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
65%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis suggests an extremely balanced match, with a draw having the highest probability at 35%
- Casa Pia shows a positive attacking trend (2.0 goals in recent games) in contrast to Moreirense, whose offense has recently faltered (0.8 goals)
- The artificial turf at the home stadium is a potential advantage for Casa Pia, as Moreirense has no experience on this surface
Risk Factors
- Moreirense's starting lineup only accounts for 55% of the total season goals, suggesting a weakened offense
- Casa Pia's defense, conceding 1.87 goals per game, is one of the weaker in the league and remains a major vulnerability
Overview
Casa Pia (13th place, 22 points) hosts Moreirense (8th place, 33 points) at Campo do Cevadeiro
Liga Portugal match on March 1, 2026, 7:00 PM
Casa Pia aims to increase the gap to the relegation zone, while Moreirense wants to solidify their mid-table position
Form
Casa Pia's form in the last 5 games: DWDWL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
Moreirense's form: WLLWL (2 wins, 3 losses)
Casa Pia has shown more stable form recently, despite losing their last match
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Moreirense is statistically superior, with an average of 1.32 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded per game
Casa Pia scores 1.09 goals and concedes 1.87 goals per game, indicating a defensive vulnerability
At home, Casa Pia concedes an average of 1.5 goals, while Moreirense scores 1.27 goals away
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, there were 2 wins for Casa Pia and 3 wins for Moreirense
The goal difference is 10:8 in favor of Casa Pia
The last meeting was won by Moreirense with a score of 2-1
Key Players
For Casa Pia, Jérémy Livolant (3 goals, 7 assists), Cassiano (4 goals), and Gaizka Larrazabal (3 goals, 3 assists) are the key offensive players
At Moreirense, Alan de Souza Guimarães (2 goals, 5 assists), Dinis Lourenço Casals Namura Borges Pinto (1 goal, 6 assists), and Travassos (4 goals) stand out
Goalkeepers
Casa Pia's goalkeeper is Patrick Sequeira; his team has kept 4 clean sheets this season
Moreirense's goalkeeper is André Ferreira, whose team has kept 7 clean sheets
Influences
The artificial turf at Campo do Cevadeiro gives Casa Pia an advantage, as they have a record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses here
There is no data for Moreirense on this surface
Additionally, recent matches at this stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game