Liga Portugal
Rio Ave - Famalicão
03/01/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.7
1.9
1.2
0:0
17%0:1
16%1:1
14%0:2
10%1:0
9%What influences the xG?
Rio Ave
Famalicão
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
34%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
58%
Under 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
29%
Under 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
37%
No
63%
Key Factors
- Massive weakening of Rio Ave: According to the data, only 17% of the goal threat is available as key offensive players are not in the squad
- Contrasting forms: Rio Ave with five consecutive losses and a negative trend meets a stronger Famalicão with a positive trend
- Defensive stability meets attacking weakness: Famalicão has one of the best defenses in the league with 11 clean sheets, while Rio Ave failed to score in 10 of 23 matches
Risk Factors
- Offensive gap for Famalicão: Due to the absence of Gustavo Sá, only 59% of the team's goal threat is available according to the data
- Famalicão's away weakness: Despite a strong overall record, the team concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game away from home
Overview
Rio Ave (15th place, 20 points) hosts Famalicão (6th place, 35 points)
Liga Portugal match on March 1, 2026, 9:30 PM at the Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
This is a duel between a relegation candidate and a contender for European spots
The mathematical analysis favors the visitors with a 45% probability of winning
Form
Home team form: LLLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Rio Ave is in a deep crisis with five consecutive losses from their last five matches
Away team form: WLWLW
Famalicão shows inconsistent but significantly stronger form with three wins from their last five games
Statistics
Rio Ave has one of the most vulnerable defenses in the league, conceding an average of 1.91 goals per game
In contrast, Famalicão has one of the best defenses, conceding just 0.91 goals on average
However, Famalicão is much more vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game
Rio Ave failed to score in 10 of 23 season games, Famalicão in 7 of 23
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, there were no wins for Rio Ave
Famalicão managed to win two of these matches, while three ended in a draw
The goal difference also favors the visitors at 5:3
The last meeting ended in a 0-0 draw
Key Players
Jalen Blesa (1 season goal)
Marios Vrousai (1 goal, 1 assist)
Andreas Ntoi (2 season assists)
Gil Dias (3 goals, 6 assists)
Sorriso (3 goals, 3 assists)
Mathias de Amorim (3 goals, 1 assist)
Goalkeepers
Ennio Van Der Gouw is in goal for Rio Ave
His team has kept 2 clean sheets this season
Lazar Carević is the goalkeeper for Famalicão
His team has already kept a clean sheet in 11 league games this season
Influences
Rio Ave is defensively vulnerable at home, conceding an average of 1.82 goals per game
In the last five matches at the Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, there has been an average of 2.6 goals
The grass surface of the stadium does not represent a significant adjustment for either team