Liga Portugal
Porto - Arouca
02/27/2026, 06:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.1
0.7
1:0
16%0:0
14%1:1
14%2:0
12%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Porto
Arouca
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
31%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Key Factors
- Defensive Superiority: Porto's league-best defense (0.3 goals conceded per game) faces an Arouca side that concedes an average of 2.6 goals in away matches
- Critical Offensive Absences for Porto: The home team is severely hampered, with only 48% of their seasonal goal production available due to the absence of key attackers like Samu Aghehowa (13 goals)
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Porto has a clear historical advantage, having won the last encounter 4-0 and outscoring Arouca 13-4 in the last five meetings
Risk Factors
- Arouca's Attacking Surge: The visitors are in strong goal-scoring form, with a recent average of 2.4 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 1.4
- Porto's Recent Goal Drought: The league leaders' attack has been underperforming lately, dropping to an average of 1.4 goals per game from their season average of 1.9
Overview
League leaders Porto (1st place, 62 points) host Arouca (11th place, 26 points) at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo
This Liga Portugal match takes place on February 27, 2026, 6:45 PM
Porto aims to solidify their top position, while Arouca looks to climb in the mid-table
The mathematical model gives the home team a 52% probability of winning
Form
Porto's form across all competitions is WLDWW
In their last five matches, they have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
They are currently on a two-game winning streak
Arouca's form is LWWLW
They have also secured 3 wins but suffered 2 losses in their last five outings
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Porto boasts the league's best defense, conceding an average of only 0.3 goals per game, and keeping 17 clean sheets in 23 matches
Their attack is also strong, with an average of 1.91 goals scored per game
Arouca's defense is a major concern, especially away from home where they concede an average of 2.6 goals per game
Their attack, however, is respectable with an average of 1.35 goals scored per match
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Porto has been dominant with 3 wins, while Arouca has won once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference clearly favors Porto, who have scored 13 goals compared to Arouca's 4
The most recent encounter was a convincing 4-0 victory for Porto
Key Players
For Porto, defender Jan Bednarek has been a rock with a season rating of 7.24, alongside creative attacker PepĂȘ (2 goals, 4 assists)
Arouca's main threats are Alfonso Trezza, the team's top scorer with 8 goals, and the in-form IvĂĄn Barbero, who has scored 4 goals in his last 4 appearances
NaĂŻs Djouahra has also contributed with 5 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Porto's Diogo Costa has had an exceptional season, securing 17 clean sheets in 23 league matches
Arouca will rely on Ignacio de Arruabarrena in goal, who has played in 6 matches this season
Influences
The EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo is a fortress for Porto, where they score an average of 1.91 goals and concede just 0.27 per game
Arouca's away form is poor, with an average of 2.6 goals conceded on their travels
This stark contrast highlights a significant home advantage for Porto