Liga Portugal
Vitória Guimarães - Alverca
02/28/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.5
1.0
1:1
14%1:0
11%0:0
10%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Vitória Guimarães
Alverca
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
29%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Vitória's stable home defense (1.07 goals conceded) meets Alverca's vulnerable away defense (1.83 goals conceded)
- Contrasting attacking trends: Vitória's offense shows positive development (recently 1.8 goals/game), while Alverca's attack is stagnating (recently 0.8 goals/game)
- Form advantage for Guimarães: Alverca is winless in five games and struggling, while Vitória Guimarães, despite inconsistency, has managed two recent wins
Risk Factors
- Low goal threat from Alverca: The visitors' starting lineup brings only 65% of the seasonal goal production onto the pitch
- Vitória's inconsistency: The 'LWLWL' form shows that the home team is unpredictable and can unexpectedly drop points
- Head-to-head record: The only recent meeting was won by Alverca, which could give the visitors confidence
Overview
Vitória Guimarães (9th place, 31 points) host Alverca (10th place, 26 points) at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Liga Portugal match on February 28, 2026, 8:30 PM
A mid-table clash where the home team is considered a slight favorite, supported by a 49% win probability in the model
Form
Vitória Guimarães shows inconsistent form (LWLWL) with 2 wins and 3 losses in their last five games
Alverca is winless in their last five matches, with 3 draws and 2 losses (Form: LDLDD)
The form clearly favors the home team, despite their inconsistency
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Vitória Guimarães is defensively much more stable at home, conceding only 1.07 goals per game compared to 2.11 away
Alverca, on the other hand, is very vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 1.83 goals per game
Offensively, Vitória Guimarães scores an average of 1.17 goals per game, while Alverca scores 1.0
Head-to-Head
The only recent head-to-head encounter was won 2-0 by Alverca on the road
The data basis for a historical comparison is therefore very limited
Key Players
For Vitória Guimarães, midfielder Samu (3 goals, 2 assists this season) and attacker Noah Jose Saviolo (2 goals, 3 assists) are key players
For Alverca, hopes rest on top scorer Marko Milovanović (7 seasonal goals) and creative midfielder Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos (2 goals, 3 assists)
Goalkeepers
Vitória Guimarães' goalkeeper, Charles, has been involved in 7 clean sheets for his team this season
Alverca's keeper, André Nogueira Gomes, has managed 5 clean sheets with his team so far
Influences
The home advantage for Vitória Guimarães is statistically significant, especially in defense
An average of 2.6 goals are scored per game at the Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, suggesting a potentially high-scoring match
Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 60% of recent games at this venue