Liga Portugal
Nacional - Sporting Braga
02/28/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
0.8
2.8
2.0
0:2
12%1:1
11%1:2
10%0:3
8%1:3
6%What influences the xG?
Nacional
Sporting Braga
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
14%
Draw
24%
Away Win
62%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
38%
Away or Draw
86%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Superiority in Standings and Form: Sporting Braga (4th) is far ahead of Nacional (14th) and shows significantly better form with 3 wins in the last 5 games
- Offensive Firepower: Braga has one of the league's best attacks (avg. 2.09 goals/game), recently increasing to 2.8, while Nacional has been scoreless in 3 of the last 4 matches
- Clear Signal from Models: The computational analysis strongly favors Braga with a 62% win probability and projects almost 2 goals for the visitors
Risk Factors
- Surprise in the last encounter: Although Braga dominates the historical record, Nacional surprisingly won the most recent head-to-head meeting 1-0
- Braga's away defense: Sporting Braga concedes an average of 1.18 goals per away game, making them more vulnerable on the road than at home (0.75)
Overview
Nacional (14th place, 21 points) hosts Sporting Braga (4th place, 42 points) at the EstĂĄdio da Madeira
A Liga Portugal match on February 28, 2026, 6:00 PM
The home team is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle, while Braga aims to solidify their position at the top
Form
Nacional's form in the last five games: W-L-D-L-L
The team managed only one win, with three losses and one draw
They are currently on a two-game losing streak and failed to score in three of their last four matches
Sporting Braga's form in the last five games: D-W-W-L-W
The visitors are in good shape with three wins, one draw, and only one loss
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Sporting Braga has one of the best offenses in the league, averaging 2.09 goals per game, while Nacional averages 1.17
Defensively, Braga is also much more solid with only 0.96 goals conceded per game compared to Nacional's 1.48
Braga is particularly dangerous away from home, scoring an average of 2.09 goals per game
In 16 of Braga's 23 matches, there have been over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Sporting Braga has clearly dominated with four wins, while Nacional won only once
The goal difference also favors Braga at 8:3
However, Nacional surprisingly won the last meeting 1-0
Key Players
JesĂșs RamĂrez is Nacional's top scorer with 13 goals this season
In midfield, Liziero has contributed 4 assists
Paulinho BĂłia is also a key part of the attack with 2 goals and 2 assists
For Sporting Braga, Ricardo Horta is the standout player with 12 goals and 4 assists
Rodrigo Zalazar also shows his goal-scoring threat with 11 seasonal goals
Pau VĂctor has established himself as an important offensive player with 6 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Nacional's goalkeeper is Kaique; with his participation, the team has achieved 4 clean sheets this season
Lukas Hornicek of Sporting Braga has been involved in 9 clean sheets, giving him a statistically better record
Influences
Nacional does not have a standout home record, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.29 goals per home game
The last five matches at the EstĂĄdio da Madeira have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.0 goals per game
In three of these five matches, there were over 2.5 goals