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Liga Portugal

Estrela Amadora - Gil Vicente

03/08/2026, 03:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Estrela Amadora
1.0
Total xG
2.7
Gil Vicente
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

10%

2:1

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
EAGV

Estrela Amadora

Attack weakness (0.7x league average)
-0.60
Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.55
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.17
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.08
Jefferson Encada not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)

Gil Vicente

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.18
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.18
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Full strength squad available
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

27%

Away Win

52%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

48%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Performance Gap: Gil Vicente is significantly higher in the table than Estrela Amadora and has a 52% win probability
  • Form: Gil Vicente shows a positive form trend, while Estrela Amadora's goal production is stagnating
  • Offensive Strength: Gil Vicente is currently scoring more frequently (2.2 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Jefferson Encada is missing for Estrela Amadora, accounting for 18.9% of their usual assists
  • Estrela Amadora's current goal production is 0.8 goals, below their season average of 1.3 goals
Overview

Estrela Amadora (12th place, 24 points) host Gil Vicente (5th place, 40 points) at the Estådio José Gomes. The Liga Portugal match takes place on March 8, 2026, 4:30 PM. Gil Vicente is fighting for a European spot, while Estrela Amadora needs points to avoid relegation.

Form

Estrela Amadora's form across all competitions is DWLLD. The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last five matches. Their last game ended in a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Gil Vicente's form across all competitions is WWWLL. The team recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches. Their last two games were losses.

Statistics

Estrela Amadora averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.71 goals conceded per game. At home, the average is 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded. The team kept 6 clean sheets this season. Both teams scored in 11 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 12 matches.

Gil Vicente averages 1.46 goals scored and 0.96 goals conceded per game. Away, the average is 1.5 goals scored and 1.3 goals conceded. They kept 10 clean sheets this season. Both teams scored in 11 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 11 matches.

The venue has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game, with 20% BTTS and 40% Over 2.5.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente leads with 2 wins compared to Estrela Amadora's 1 win, with 2 draws. Gil Vicente scored 7 goals, while Estrela Amadora scored 3. The last encounter saw Gil Vicente win 2-0 on October 4, 2025. Gil Vicente has shown recent dominance in direct duels.

Key Players

For Estrela Amadora, Jovane Cabral (4 goals, 0 assists, avg rating 7.10) and Abraham Marcus (3 goals, 3 assists, avg rating 7.02) stand out. Paulo Moreira (3 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 6.61) is also an important midfielder.

For Gil Vicente, Murilo de Souza Costa (6 goals, 4 assists, avg rating 6.99) and Luís André Leite Esteves (3 goals, 6 assists, avg rating 7.27) are crucial. Santiago García Gonzålez (5 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 7.13) also contributes to the offense.

Goalkeepers

Renan Ribeiro is Estrela Amadora's starting goalkeeper with an average season rating of 6.76. His team kept 6 clean sheets this season.

LucĂŁo is Gil Vicente's starting goalkeeper with an average season rating of 6.67. His team achieved 10 clean sheets.

Influences

Estrela Amadora scores an average of 1.08 goals at home and concedes 1.46 goals. Gil Vicente scores 1.5 goals away and concedes 1.3 goals. The Estådio José Gomes, a grass pitch, has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in only 1 out of 5 games.

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