Bundesliga
SC Freiburg - Bayer 04 Leverkusen
03/07/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
SC Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
31%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Leverkusen's superior league position and season statistics (43 points, 1.88 goals/game)
- Leverkusen's strong head-to-head record with 4 wins and 1 draw from 5 matches
- Freiburg's current offensive weakness with only 0.6 goals per game recently and a negative form trend
Risk Factors
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- SC Freiburg's counter-oriented play averages only 3.0 shots on target
Overview
SC Freiburg (8th place, 33 points) host Bayer 04 Leverkusen (6th place, 43 points) at the Europa-Park Stadion
Bundesliga match on March 7, 2026, 3:30 PM
Leverkusen is fighting for European spots, Freiburg aims to consolidate its mid-table position
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
SC Freiburg's form across all competitions: LWLWL
Freiburg recorded 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
Their last game was an away loss against Eintracht Frankfurt (0:2)
Goal production is currently stagnant (0.6 goals/game) compared to the season average (1.52 goals/game)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen's form across all competitions: WLDDW
Leverkusen achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Their last game was an away win against Hamburger SV (1:0)
Leverkusen's goal production is currently stagnant (1.0 goals/game) compared to the season average (1.8 goals/game)
Statistics
SC Freiburg scores an average of 1.42 goals per game and concedes 1.63 goals
At home, Freiburg is stronger with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per home game
Bayer 04 Leverkusen scores an average of 1.88 goals per game and concedes 1.21 goals
Away from home, Leverkusen scores an average of 1.82 goals and concedes 1.64 goals per away game
The Europa-Park Stadion sees an average of 2.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games at the stadium, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, SC Freiburg has 0 wins, 1 draw, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen has 4 wins
The goal difference is 6:14 in favor of Bayer 04 Leverkusen
The last encounter was an away win for Leverkusen with 2:0 on October 26, 2025
Bayer 04 Leverkusen has dominated recent direct confrontations
Key Players
For SC Freiburg, Igor Matanovic (6 goals, 1 assist), Yuito Suzuki (3 goals, 3 assists), and Maximilian Eggestein (2 goals) are key players
Igor Matanovic shows a rising form trend with a rating improvement of 0.32
Maximilian Eggestein also has a rising form trend with a rating improvement of 0.22
Not nominated for SC Freiburg: Vincenzo Grifo (6G/1A)
For Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Alejandro Grimaldo (5 goals, 5 assists), Ernest Poku (5 goals, 4 assists), and Edmond Tapsoba (4 goals, 2 assists) are crucial players
Not nominated for Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Patrik Schick (7G/2A), Arthur (1G/3A)
Goalkeepers
SC Freiburg's goalkeeper is Noah Atubolu, who kept 5 clean sheets in 24 season appearances
Bayer 04 Leverkusen's goalkeeper is Janis Blaswich, who has not kept a clean sheet in 8 season appearances
Influences
SC Freiburg demonstrates a good home defense with only 0.8 goals conceded per game
The home team has scored 1.4 home goals per game so far
The Europa-Park Stadion has an average of 2.2 goals per game