Liga Portugal
Estoril - Casa Pia
03/07/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.5
0.9
1:1
13%2:0
11%2:1
9%3:0
6%1:2
5%What influences the xG?
Estoril
Casa Pia
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
28%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Estoril with 53% probability
- Matchup advantage: Estoril's home offense (avg 1.86 goals) faces Casa Pia's weak away defense (avg 2.44 goals conceded)
- Tactical clash: Estoril's ball-possession dominant play (56% possession) meets Casa Pia's counter-oriented approach (33% possession)
Risk Factors
- Casa Pia's away weakness: The team concedes an average of 2.44 goals per away game
- Casa Pia's low shots on target: Their counter-oriented play results in only 2.4 shots on target per game
Overview
Estoril (8th place, 33 points) hosts Casa Pia (13th place, 23 points) at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Liga Portugal match on March 7, 2026, 9:30 PM
Estoril aims to consolidate its mid-table position, while Casa Pia needs crucial points in the relegation battle
Form
Estoril shows a form of WDLWL in their last five matches
The team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Their last match ended in a loss for Estoril
Casa Pia displays a form of WDWLD in their last five matches
They recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Casa Pia's last game ended in a draw
Statistics
Estoril scores an average of 1.92 goals per game and concedes 1.75 goals
In 14 home games, Estoril scored 26 goals (avg 1.86) and conceded 17 goals (avg 1.21)
Estoril had 14 games where both teams scored, and 17 games with over 2.5 goals
Casa Pia scores an average of 1.08 goals per game and concedes 1.83 goals
In 9 away games, Casa Pia scored 10 goals (avg 1.11) and conceded 22 goals (avg 2.44)
Casa Pia had 12 games where both teams scored, and 12 games with over 2.5 goals
The stadium saw an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 4 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 4 out of 5 games, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril secured 2 wins
Casa Pia won 1 match, and there were 2 draws
Estoril scored a total of 9 goals, Casa Pia 5 goals
The last encounter on October 3, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw
The recent head-to-head record shows dominance by Estoril
Key Players
Yanis Begraoui, Estoril's attacker, scored 17 goals and 1 assist this season
In the last 5 games, he scored 2 times
Rafik Guitane, Estoril's attacker, contributed 3 goals and 5 assists this season
Alejandro Marqués, Estoril's attacker, scored 4 goals this season
Jérémy Livolant, Casa Pia's attacker, recorded 3 goals and 7 assists this season
In the last 5 games, he provided 2 assists
Cassiano, Casa Pia's attacker, scored 5 goals this season
In the last 5 games, he scored 2 times
Goalkeepers
Joel Robles is Estoril's goalkeeper and achieved 3 clean sheets this season
Patrick Sequeira is Casa Pia's goalkeeper and recorded 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
Estoril shows an average home offense of 1.86 goals and a defense of 1.21 goals conceded
Casa Pia scored an average of 1.11 goals away and conceded 2.44 goals
The Estádio António Coimbra da Mota is known for an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last five matches
In this stadium, both teams scored in 80% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the games
The match will be played on a grass surface