Liga Portugal
Tondela - Rio Ave
03/09/2026, 08:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.1
0.7
1:0
15%1:1
14%0:0
13%2:0
12%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Tondela
Rio Ave
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
30%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
40%
No
60%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees Tondela as favorites for a home win with 52%
- Form trend: Tondela is in a positive form phase with 1 win and 4 draws, while Rio Ave has a negative streak
- Offensive strength: Tondela is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (0.9) according to advanced statistics
Risk Factors
- Rio Ave concedes an average of 1.85 goals per away game
- Rio Ave has an average of only 2.4 shots on target, indicating few attempts on goal
Overview
Tondela (17th place, 19 points) host Rio Ave (16th place, 21 points) at Estádio João Cardoso
This Liga Portugal match takes place on March 9, 2026, 9:15 PM
Both teams are deep in the relegation battle, fighting for crucial points to avoid relegation
Form
Tondela are unbeaten in their last five matches with 1 win and 4 draws (DDDWD)
Their last game ended in a 2-2 draw against Santa Clara
Rio Ave is in a difficult phase with 4 losses and 1 draw in their last five matches (LLLLD)
Their last result was a 0-0 draw against Famalicão
Statistics
Tondela scores an average of 0.79 goals per game and concedes 1.58 goals
At home, these values are 0.82 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded per home game
Rio Ave scores an average of 0.96 goals and concedes 1.83 goals per match
Away from home, this amounts to 0.92 goals scored and 1.85 goals conceded per away game
At Estádio João Cardoso, an average of 2.2 goals per game are scored, and both teams score in 60% of matches
Head-to-Head
In the 5 direct encounters so far, Rio Ave has the upper hand with 3 wins compared to Tondela's 1 win
One match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 10:7 in favor of Rio Ave
The last meeting was won by Rio Ave away on October 5, 2025, with a 3-0 score
Key Players
For Tondela, Maranhão shows rising form with 6 goals and 1 assist in 24 games
Brayan Medina is also in rising form with 1 assist and an average rating of 6.84
Bernardo, the goalkeeper, has a rating of 6.95 in 24 appearances and shows an upward trend
For Rio Ave, Jalen Blesa stands out with 1 goal in 4 appearances and rising form
Marios Vrousai (1 goal, 1 assist) and Dario Spikic (2 goals) are other key offensive players
Goalkeepers
Bernardo is Tondela's goalkeeper and has recorded 4 clean sheets this season
For Rio Ave, Ennio Van Der Gouw is in goal, and the team has achieved 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Tondela has scored an average of 0.82 goals and conceded 1.45 goals in home games
At Estádio João Cardoso, an average of 2.2 goals have been scored in the last 5 matches
In 60% of games at this stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40%