Liga Portugal
Alverca - AVS
03/07/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.6
0.8
1:1
12%2:0
12%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Alverca
AVS
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
59%
Draw
26%
Away Win
15%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
85%
Away or Draw
41%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Favorites: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Alverca with a 59% probability
- Home strength meets away weakness: Alverca averages 1.0 goals at home, while AVS concedes an alarming 3.09 goals away
- Form and league position: Alverca is unbeaten in their last 4 games and sits 8 places above bottom-placed AVS
Risk Factors
- AVS concedes an average of 3.09 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- AVS is counter-attacking oriented (34% possession) with only 2.0 shots on target (avgShotsOnTarget)
Overview
Alverca (10th place, 27 points) host AVS (18th place, 9 points) at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. The Liga Portugal match takes place on March 7, 2026, 3:30 PM. Alverca is in the mid-table, while AVS is at the bottom and desperately needs points.
Form
Alverca's form is DLDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), with 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Their last match ended in a draw. AVS shows a form of LLWLD, achieving 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five games. Their last match also ended in a draw.
Statistics
Alverca averages 1.0 goals scored per game and concedes an average of 1.63 goals. This season, Alverca kept 5 clean sheets. In home games, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.45 goals conceded, with 4 clean sheets. AVS averages 0.75 goals scored per game and concedes 2.38 goals, with 2 clean sheets this season. Away from home, AVS averages 0.73 goals scored and concedes an alarming 3.09 goals, with no clean sheets. At Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, an average of 2.2 goals are scored per game, and both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches. More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams. Alverca won this single match, while AVS has no wins and there have been no draws. The goal difference is 3:1 in favor of Alverca. The last encounter was won by Alverca with a score of 3:1 on October 4, 2025.
Key Players
For Alverca, Marko Milovanović is a key player with 7 goals and 1 assist in 23 appearances, with his form rising at 0.41 goals per 90 minutes in the last 5 games. Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in 20 games. Figueiredo scored 3 goals and 1 assist in 17 appearances, adding 1 goal in the last 5 games. For AVS, Diego Ariel Duarte Gárcete shows rising form with 3 season goals in 17 appearances and 2 goals in the last 5 games (0.85 goals per 90 minutes). Tomané has 2 goals and 1 assist in 20 games, with one goal and one assist in the last 5 games. Ángel Algobia Esteves scored 1 goal in 17 appearances and also contributed one goal in the last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Alverca's goalkeeper, André Nogueira Gomes, had an average rating of 6.62 in 22 season appearances. His team recorded 5 clean sheets. For AVS, Adriel played in 7 season games and achieved an average rating of 6.70. AVS achieved 2 clean sheets.
Influences
The match will be played on a grass surface at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca. Alverca scores an average of 1.0 goals at home and concedes 1.45 goals. AVS concedes an average of 3.09 goals away from home, while scoring 0.73 goals. The stadium has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 games.