Liga Portugal
Moreirense - Nacional
03/07/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
1.8
1.0
0:0
18%1:1
15%0:1
13%1:0
12%0:2
7%What influences the xG?
Moreirense
Nacional
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
36%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
57%
Under 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
28%
Under 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
12%
Under 3.5
88%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
64%
Both Score
Yes
38%
No
62%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The model forecasts a high probability of a draw at 36%, with win chances at 30% for Moreirense and 34% for Nacional
- Form disparity: Nacional is in a crisis with 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 5 games, while Moreirense is slightly better with 1 win and 1 draw
- Offensive weakness: Both teams show a negative form trend in goal production; Moreirense is currently at 0.8 goals compared to a 1.3 season average, and Nacional at 0.5 compared to 1.2
Risk Factors
- Low scoring potential: The model predicts a low probability for over 2.5 goals (28%) and for both teams to score (38%)
- Persistent offensive weakness: Moreirense's goal production is stagnant (0.8), while the season average is 1.3. Nacional's goal production is stagnant (0.5), while the season average is 1.2.
Overview
Moreirense (7th place, 34 points) host Nacional (14th place, 21 points) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. The Liga Portugal match is on March 7, 2026, 4:30 PM. Moreirense aims for a higher league position, while Nacional is fighting against relegation.
Form
Moreirense's form in the last five matches is LLWLD, representing one win, one draw, and three losses. Their last game resulted in a draw. Nacional shows a form of LDLLL, with one draw and four losses, and they lost their last encounter. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Moreirense averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded per game this season. At home, these figures are 1.25 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Nacional averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 goals conceded per match. Away from home, Nacional concedes an average of 1.78 goals per game. The Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas stadium has an average of 2.4 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 1 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the five direct confrontations, Nacional secured two wins, Moreirense one, and there were two draws. Nacional won the last match on October 4, 2025, with a 3-2 score. Overall, Nacional scored 7 goals, while Moreirense scored 6.
Key Players
For Moreirense, key players include Alan de Souza Guimarães (3 goals, 5 assists, average rating 7.02), Travassos (4 goals, 2 assists, average rating 6.90), and Jóbson de Brito Gonzaga (3 goals, average rating 6.87). For Nacional, Jesús Ramírez (13 goals, average rating 7.24), Ze Vitor (4 goals, 1 assist, average rating 6.89), and Liziero (4 assists, average rating 7.04) are noteworthy.
Goalkeepers
André Ferreira is Moreirense's goalkeeper, playing 15 season appearances with an average rating of 6.80. The team achieved 7 clean sheets. Nacional's goalkeeper is Kaique, who played 18 matches with an average rating of 6.95. Nacional managed 4 clean sheets.
Influences
Moreirense has scored 1.25 goals and conceded 1.33 goals in home games, suggesting a home advantage. Nacional concedes an average of 1.78 goals per away game. The Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas stadium has seen an average of 2.4 total goals per game in the last five matches. Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 games.