Liga Portugal
Famalicão - Arouca
03/06/2026, 08:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.2
0.7
1:0
15%1:1
13%2:0
12%0:0
12%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Famalicão
Arouca
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
29%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Famalicão is the clear favorite with a 55% home win probability and expected goals of 1.53 versus 0.71 for Arouca
- Defensive matchup advantage: Famalicão's strong home defense (0.53 goals conceded) meets Arouca's very weak away defense (2.64 goals conceded)
- Arouca's improved offense: The visitors have shown stronger attacking form recently, with an average of 2.4 goals per game, compared to 1.4 season average
Risk Factors
- Arouca concedes an average of 2.64 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability
- Famalicão will be without M. Lopes Moura (3 goals, 3 assists) due to a yellow card suspension
Overview
Famalicão (6th place, 36 points) host Arouca (11th place, 26 points) at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
Liga Portugal match on March 6, 2026, 8:15 PM
Famalicão aims to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table, while Arouca fights to catch up
Form
Famalicão's form across all competitions is LWLWD
Famalicão has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
The last match ended in a draw
Arouca's form across all competitions is WWLWL
Arouca achieved 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
The most recent result was a loss
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Famalicão scores an average of 1.21 goals and concedes 0.88 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.24 goals scored and 0.53 goals conceded
Arouca scores 1.33 goals and concedes 2.17 goals per game on average this season
Away from home, the average is 1.36 goals scored and 2.64 goals conceded
Famalicão kept 12 clean sheets, while Arouca kept 5 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 7 of Famalicão's matches and in 13 of Arouca's matches
The Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho has seen an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches at this venue, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 Famalicão wins, 1 Arouca win, and 2 draws
Famalicão scored a total of 6 goals, Arouca 5 goals
The last encounter on October 5, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
Famalicão has been dominant at home in recent encounters
Key Players
For Famalicão, Gil Dias is a key player with 3 goals and 6 assists
Gustavo Sá contributed to the offense with 4 goals and 1 assist
Antoine Joujou shows a rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist
For Arouca, Alfonso Trezza is the top scorer with 8 goals and 3 assists
Iván Barbero has scored 5 goals and 1 assist and shows a rising form
Hyun-ju Lee is also significant with 5 goals and 3 assists and a rising form
Goalkeepers
Lazar Carević (Famalicão) kept 12 clean sheets this season
Ignacio de Arruabarrena (Arouca) achieved 5 clean sheets
Influences
Famalicão shows a strong defense at home with an average of 0.53 goals conceded per game
The home offense scores an average of 1.24 goals
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho is known for high-scoring games (averaging 3.6 goals per game)
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the last home matches