Liga Portugal
Porto - Moreirense
03/15/2026, 08:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.3
0.7
1:0
15%2:0
14%1:1
12%0:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Porto
Moreirense
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
61%
Draw
26%
Away Win
13%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
87%
Away or Draw
39%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
41%
No
59%
Key Factors
- Favorites: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 61%
- Form strength: Porto is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 matches
- Home strength: Porto scored an average of 2.0 goals in home games and conceded only 0.33 goals
Risk Factors
- Porto has only 3 days rest since the last match
- Moreirense has an average of only 2.8 shots on target (average)
Overview
Porto (1st place, 66 points) hosts Moreirense (7th place, 35 points) at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo. The Liga Portugal match takes place on March 15, 2026, 9:30 PM. Porto leads the table and aims to extend their lead, while Moreirense is positioned in the upper midfield.
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Porto is in excellent form with WWWDW in their last five matches
The home team recorded 4 wins and 1 draw with 0 losses in their last five games
Moreirense's form is more inconsistent with LWLDD in their last five encounters
Moreirense has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in these games
Porto's form trend is stable, while Moreirense's goal production is stagnant (1.0 goals) according to analysis, with a season average of 1.3 goals
Statistics
Porto scores an average of 1.96 goals per game and concedes only 0.4 goals per match
At home, Porto is particularly strong with an average of 2.0 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded
The team has achieved 17 clean sheets this season
Moreirense scores an average of 1.24 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per game
Away from home, Moreirense scores an average of 1.25 goals and concedes 1.5 goals
The EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo sees an average of 2.8 goals per game
In 3 out of 5 matches at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo, both teams scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Porto has secured all victories so far
Porto won all 5 matches, Moreirense won none, and there were no draws
The goal difference in these encounters is 15:3 in favor of Porto
The last meeting ended in a 2:1 victory for Porto on October 27, 2025
Porto has dominated recent direct confrontations
Key Players
Porto relies on midfielder Victor Froholdt, who contributed 4 season goals and 4 assists
PepĂȘ in attack has scored 2 goals and provided 4 assists this season
Midfielder Gabri Veiga shines with 1 goal and 6 assists
For Moreirense, Travassos in defense is a key player with 4 season goals and 3 assists
Midfielder Alan de Souza GuimarĂŁes contributed 3 goals and 5 assists
JĂłbson de Brito Gonzaga in defense is a threat with 3 goals
Goalkeepers
Diogo Costa, Porto's goalkeeper, has kept 17 clean sheets this season
AndrĂȘ Ferreira, Moreirense's goalkeeper, has achieved 7 clean sheets
Influences
Porto holds a strong home advantage at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo, with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded at home
The stadium is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 60% of the last 5 games at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo, both teams scored
In 60% of the last 5 games at the EstĂĄdio Do DragĂŁo, over 2.5 goals were scored