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Liga Portugal

Rio Ave - Estrela Amadora

03/15/2026, 06:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Rio Ave
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Estrela Amadora
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
RAEA

Rio Ave

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.41
Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.41
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.5 vs 1 season average)
-0.16
Full strength squad available

Estrela Amadora

Attack weakness (0.5x league average)
-0.48
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.10
Jefferson Encada not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

33%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis forecasts a 40% probability of a home win for Rio Ave, with 1.18 expected goals, representing the highest probability among all outcomes
  • Both teams, according to advanced stats, show a negative form trend in goal production; Rio Ave with 0.5 goals, Estrela Amadora with 1.0 goals on average in recent matches
  • Estrela Amadora exhibits a weakness in away defense, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game this season
Risk Factors
  • Rio Ave averages only 2.8 shots on target per game
  • Estrela Amadora concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview

Rio Ave (14th place, 24 points) host Estrela Amadora (12th place, 25 points) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube. Liga Portugal match on March 15, 2026, 6:00 PM. Both teams in the lower half of the table are fighting for crucial points

Form

Rio Ave: LLLDW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) in last five games, most recently a win. Estrela Amadora: WLLDD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), most recently two draws. Rio Ave's goal production decreased to 0.5 goals, season average 1.0. Estrela Amadora's goal production decreased to 1.0 goals, season average 1.3

Statistics

Rio Ave: Avg. 0.96 goals scored, Avg. 1.76 goals conceded. At home: Avg. 1.0 goals scored, Avg. 1.82 conceded. Estrela Amadora: Avg. 1.12 goals scored, Avg. 1.72 goals conceded. Away: Avg. 1.09 goals scored, Avg. 2.0 goals conceded. Rio Ave 2 clean sheets at home, Estrela Amadora 3 away. At Estádio do Rio Ave: Avg. 2.4 goals/game. 2/5 BTTS, 3/5 Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head encounters: Rio Ave 2 wins, Estrela Amadora 1 win, 2 draws. Goal difference 7:5 for Rio Ave. Last match on October 25, 2025: Rio Ave won away 2:1

Key Players

Rio Ave: Jalen Blesa (2 season goals, 1 goal in last 5 games), Dario Spikic (2 season goals, 1 assist), Andreas Ntoi (2 season assists, 1 assist in last 5 games, rising form). Estrela Amadora: Jovane Cabral (5 season goals, 1 goal in last 5 games), Abraham Marcus (4 season goals, 3 assists, 1 assist in last 5 games), Paulo Moreira (3 season goals, 2 assists, 1 goal in last 5 games). Jefferson Encada (0 goals, 2 assists) not in the squad

Goalkeepers

Rio Ave's goalkeeper Ennio Van Der Gouw: 5 season appearances, team 4 clean sheets (2 at home). Estrela Amadora's goalkeeper Renan Ribeiro: 25 season appearances, team 6 clean sheets (3 away)

Influences

Estádio do Rio Ave: Avg. 2.4 goals/game, 40% BTTS, 60% Over 2.5 goals. Rio Ave at home: Avg. 1.0 goals scored, Avg. 1.82 goals conceded. Estrela Amadora away: Avg. 1.09 goals scored, Avg. 2.0 goals conceded. The grass pitch is standard for this league

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