Liga Portugal
Gil Vicente - Alverca
03/14/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%2:0
11%0:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Gil Vicente
Alverca
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
52%
Draw
29%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
48%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Mathematical forecast: Analysis favors Gil Vicente with a 52% chance for a home win
- Strong home performance: Gil Vicente scores 1.43 goals at home and concedes only 0.71 goals per game
- Critical weakening of Alverca: Marko Milovanović is missing, affecting 73% of the usual starting XI strength (7G/1A)
Risk Factors
- Alverca with only 0.93 away goals per game
- Estádio Cidade de Barcelos is known for high-scoring games (Avg. 3.2 goals/game)
Overview
Gil Vicente (5th place, 41 points) host Alverca (10th place, 28 points) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
This Liga Portugal match takes place on March 14, 2026, 7:00 PM
Gil Vicente aims to consolidate its position in the top half of the table, while Alverca seeks to close the gap to the upper ranks
Form
Gil Vicente's current form across all competitions is WWLLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games
The last game ended in a draw
Alverca shows the form LDDDD across all competitions
This consists of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches
Alverca finished their last 4 games with a draw
Statistics
Gil Vicente has scored an average of 1.48 goals per game and conceded 1.0 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.71 goals conceded per home game
Alverca averages 0.96 goals scored and concedes 1.56 goals per game
Away from home, this amounts to 0.93 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded per away game
Gil Vicente's home games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos have seen an average of 3.2 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of these matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5
Head-to-Head
In the only head-to-head match, Gil Vicente won 4-0 away against Alverca on October 24, 2025
Gil Vicente scored 4 goals in that match, Alverca scored zero
Key Players
For Gil Vicente, key players include Murilo de Souza Costa (7 goals, 4 assists, average rating 6.99), Santiago García González (6 goals, 2 assists, average rating 7.17), and Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela (4 goals, 2 assists, average rating 6.73)
Murilo de Souza Costa scored 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games, his form trend is rising
Santiago García González scored once and provided 1 assist in his last 5 matches with a rising form trend
Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa Varela scored 3 times in his last 5 games, his form trend is also rising
For Alverca, Figueiredo (3 goals, 1 assist, average rating 6.89), Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos (2 goals, 3 assists, average rating 7.09), and Nabil Touaizi (1 goal, 3 assists, average rating 6.77) are notable
Figueiredo scored 1 goal in his last 5 matches
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos provided 1 assist in his last 5 games
Nabil Touaizi provided 1 assist in his last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Gil Vicente's goalkeeper Lucão has an average rating of 6.65 in 6 season appearances
Gil Vicente's team recorded 10 clean sheets this season
Alverca's goalkeeper André Nogueira Gomes has an average rating of 6.62 in 23 season appearances
Alverca managed to keep 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
Gil Vicente holds a home advantage with an average of 1.43 goals scored at home and only 0.71 goals conceded at home
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos is known for eventful games with an average of 3.2 goals per match
In 80% of games at this stadium, both teams scored, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals